- The Indiana Pacers lead the NBA Finals series 2-1 against the OKC Thunder, entering a critical Game 4 at home
- Despite trailing in the series and a previous loss in Indiana, the Thunder are favored by 6 points on the road
- All odds for Game 4 have been analyzed to provide the best picks and predictions for tonight’s matchup
The NBA Finals have taken an unexpected turn with the Thunder, the favorites, trailing 2-1 to the Pacers. Game 4 remains in Indianapolis, offering the Pacers a chance to extend their lead to 3-1 and push the Thunder closer to elimination.
This game is almost a must-win for the Thunder. A 3-1 deficit would be tough to recover from. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the 2025 NBA MVP, aims to rebound from a subpar performance, needing support from teammates like Chet Holmgren, who struggled with his shots in Game 3. The matchup between Indiana’s dynamic offense, led by Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, and Oklahoma City’s elite defense will be central in this intense game.
The game is set for 8:30 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, broadcast live on ABC.
Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks & Prediction
The Thunder are favored, but several trends support the home team. The Pacers have been strong at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, especially when underdogs. They have a 5-1 record against the spread in their last six home underdog games and are 12-3 straight up in their last 15 home games. However, one concern for Indiana is their 1-3 record against the spread after a win.
Despite expecting a strong effort from OKC, it’s uncertain whether they can cover a 6-point spread on the road after losing two of three games. Therefore, the player prop markets look more promising.
Pascal Siakam’s scoring is crucial for Indiana’s competitiveness. As their most reliable half-court creator, his ability to draw fouls will be vital against the Thunder’s defense. His points prop is set at 19.5, aligning with his seasonal average. Siakam averaged 20.2 PPG in the regular season and 20.6 PPG during this postseason. Here are his series stats:
- Game 1: 19 points (7-15 FGs)
- Game 2: 15 points (3-11 FGs)
- Game 3: 21 points (8-14 FGs)
Siakam has surpassed this total once, but the Thunder are expected to focus on Tyrese Haliburton, leading to more opportunities for Siakam.
The second recommendation is Bennedict Mathurin to score over 11.5 points. Found in the “Mathurin alternate points” market at FanDuel, Mathurin has been productive, scoring 27 and 14 points in the last two games. His efficiency (13-19 from the field over the last two games) suggests he’ll get more playing time, particularly with the Thunder likely to come out aggressively.
Mathurin has scored 12 or more points in four of his last six games, and in six of eight postseason games when playing at least 20 minutes. The Thunder’s expected intensity should guarantee more court time for Mathurin.
Top Picks:
- Pascal Siakam Over 19.5 Points (+104 at FanDuel)
- Bennedict Mathurin Over 11.5 Points (+118 at FanDuel)
Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Odds
Despite losing two out of three games, the Thunder remain 6-point road favorites, indicating sportsbooks expect a strong response. The Pacers, at +194 on the moneyline, offer a significant payout for those backing their home strength and clutch performances. The game total is set at 226.5 points, reflecting the offensive prowess and pace seen in the series, with totals of 221, 230, and 223 in the prior games.
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