SCCG Management – Sports Betting Dime

• The Indiana Pacers lead the OKC Thunder 2-1 in the NBA Finals and are set to host Game 4
• Despite trailing in the series and losing in Indiana, the Thunder are 6-point favorites on the road
• I have analyzed the odds for Game 4 and compiled my top picks and predictions for tonight’s matchup

The NBA Finals have been full of surprises, with the Thunder, favored in all three games, now trailing 2-1 to the Pacers. With Game 4 still in Indianapolis, the stakes are high as the Pacers aim for a 3-1 lead that could put the Thunder on the edge of elimination.

For the Thunder, a win is crucial. Falling to 3-1 would be a tough deficit to overcome. NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander must recover from a subpar performance, needing his teammates, especially Chet Holmgren, who shot 0-6 in Game 3, to support him. The clash between Indiana’s potent offense, led by Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, and OKC’s strong defense will be critical in what promises to be an intense game.

The game will start at 8:30 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on Friday, June 13, broadcast live on ABC.

Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks & Prediction

Though the Thunder are favorites, several trends favor the Pacers. Indiana has excelled at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, especially as underdogs. They are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as a home underdog and 12-3 straight up in their last 15 home games. However, they are 1-3 against the spread following a victory in their last four instances.

Indiana will likely face the Thunder’s best effort, but after winning two of three games, it’s uncertain if OKC can win by more than a 6-point margin on the road. Therefore, I’m focusing on player prop markets.

Pascal Siakam’s scoring is crucial for Indiana to compete. As the most reliable half-court creator, expect him to frequently reach the free throw line and be heavily relied upon against the Thunder’s defense. His points prop of 19.5 aligns with his averages of 20.2 PPG in the regular season and 20.6 PPG in the playoffs. His series stats are:

• Game 1: 19 points (7-15 FGs)
• Game 2: 15 points (3-11)
• Game 3: 21 points (8-14)

Siakam has surpassed this total once in the series, and with the Thunder focusing on Tyrese Haliburton, more opportunities should arise for Siakam.

The second pick is Bennedict Mathurin to exceed 11.5 points. Available in the FanDuel “Mathurin alternate points” market, he consistently scores when on the floor, having just delivered a 27-point game following a 14-point performance in Game 2. Given his efficiency (13-19 from the field in the last two games), Rick Carlisle will likely ensure he gets ample time on the court.

Mathurin has scored at least 12 points in four of his last six games and in six of eight playoff games where he played at least 20 minutes. With the Thunder expected to start strong, Mathurin’s floor time seems promising.

Top Picks:

• Pascal Siakam Over 19.5 Points (+104 at FanDuel)
• Bennedict Mathurin Over 11.5 Points (+118 at FanDuel)