- The Indiana Pacers lead the NBA Finals series 2-1 against the OKC Thunder and are set to host Game 4
- Despite trailing in the series and losing once in Indiana, the Thunder are 6-point favorites for this away game
- I’ve reviewed the odds for Game 4 and prepared my top picks and predictions for tonight’s matchup
The NBA Finals have unfolded unexpectedly, with the Thunder, favored in all games, now trailing 2-1 against the Pacers. Game 4, still in Indianapolis, is crucial, as the Pacers aim to widen their lead to 3-1, potentially edging the Thunder towards elimination.
This is a critical game for the Thunder. A 3-1 deficit would be daunting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the 2025 NBA MVP, needs to recover from his last lackluster game and will depend on his teammates, particularly Chet Holmgren, who struggled in Game 3. The clash between Indiana’s dynamic offense, led by Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, and Oklahoma City’s strong defense is expected to be intense and physical.
Game time is 8:30 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, on Friday, June 13, broadcast live on ABC.
Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks & Prediction
Though the Thunder are favored, trends favor the home team. The Pacers have excelled at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, especially as underdogs, with a 5-1 record against the spread in their last six home games as underdogs and a 12-3 record straight up in their last 15 home games. However, after a victory, Indiana has struggled, going 1-3 against the spread in their last four such games.
I expect Indiana to face a strong challenge from OKC, but given their two wins in three games, I doubt the Thunder will clear a 6-point spread. Therefore, I’m focusing on player prop markets.
Pascal Siakam’s scoring is crucial for Indiana. Siakam, the team’s reliable half-court creator, has consistently forced the Thunder to foul him. His points prop is 19.5, aligning with his averages of 20.2 PPG in the regular season and 20.6 PPG in these playoffs. Here’s a summary of his series points:
- Game 1: 19 points (7-15 FGs)
- Game 2: 15 points (3-11)
- Game 3: 21 points (8-14)
Siakam has surpassed this total once, but I expect OKC to limit Haliburton’s shots and provide Siakam more opportunities via drives and kicks.
Another pick is Bennedict Mathurin to exceed 11.5 points. This is an alternate line at FanDuel, under “Mathurin alternate points.” Typically, he scores efficiently, recently putting up 27 and 14 points and shooting 13-19 in the last two games.
Mathurin has scored 12+ points in four of his last six games and in six of eight postseason games where he played 20+ minutes. I anticipate a strong start from Thunder, increasing Mathurin’s early playtime prospects.
Top Picks:
- Pascal Siakam Over 19.5 Points (+104 at FanDuel)
- Bennedict Mathurin Over 11.5 Points (+118 at FanDuel)
Betslip #1749848008566-5a21-306
Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Odds
Despite losing two of three games, the Thunder are 6-point favorites. Bookmakers expect a significant response from the Thunder, whose season-long stats are stronger than their current series performance. The Pacers, at +194 on the moneyline, present a tempting option for bettors banking on their home success
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- Source: SCCGManagement.com