The Toronto Blue Jays (89-63) will visit the Tampa Bay Rays (74-78) on Thursday afternoon at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. Toronto enters the final game of this four-game series with a 2-1 advantage over the last three games. The Rays did win the most recent game of this series, though, and will look to salvage a split at home. Here, I break down this matchup between AL East foes and make my Blue Jays vs Rays prediction for the game.
Our Blue Jays vs Rays Pick
- Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays
- Date & Time: Thursday, September 18, 2025, 1:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Chris Bassitt vs Shane Baz
- Stadium: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL
- Broadcast: FDSSUN and SNET
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Chris Bassitt has had a respectable season for the Blue Jays. He is 11-8 with a 3.90 ERA. He has pitched against the Rays twice this year and had one quality start and one poor outing against Tampa this year. Shane Baz has struggled with a 9-12 record and a 5.15 ERA on the year. Baz’s ERA is worse at home than on the road this year. He tends to give up more home runs and walks at home and he will try to limit both in this start.
Recent team streaks
- The Blue Jays had a six-game winning streak snapped with Wednesday’s loss to the Rays.
- Tampa ended a three-game losing streak by defeating the Blue Jays in their last outing.
- Toronto has a four-game lead in the AL East standings going into this game.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Suggested Line |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Home Runs | Over 0.5 HR |
| George Springer | Total Bases | Over 1.5 bases |
| Shane Baz | Strikeouts | Under 4.5 K |
| Junior Caminero | Home Runs | Over 0.5 HR |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Tampa holds a 6-3 lead in their season series against the Rays this year.
- Toronto is 25-20 against opponents from the AL East this season.
- The Rays are 17-25 against division opponents this year. That is the worst record in division games among the five teams in the AL East.
- Toronto is 39-38 in road games this season.
- Tampa Bay is 39-38 in their home games this year despite playing at a temporary home while Tropicana Field undergoes repair.
Blue Jays vs Rays Model Projection
Score Projection: Blue Jays 5 – Rays 3
Win Probability: Blue Jays 55%, Rays 45%
Final Thoughts
Toronto looks like the safer play in the betting markets given their strong recent stretch and a favorable home pitching matchup with Bassitt on the mound. Bassitt should keep the Rays in check and Baz will likely give up enough to let Toronto create some separation in this contest. All things considered, I will back Toronto to win and for the Jays to remain at least four games up on the rest of the AL East after Thursday’s MLB action concludes.
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- Source: https://ats.io/mlb/toronto-blue-jays-vs-tampa-bay-rays-prediction-9-18-2025/467291/