The San Diego Padres will head to Citi Field on Thursday afternoon to face the New York Mets. Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning late in the regular season. Who will help their playoff chances with a statement win in this series finale? Continue reading to get my Padres vs Mets prediction and find out which side I like to come out on top.
Our Padres vs Mets Pick
- Pick: Over 9
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: San Diego Padres vs New York Mets
- Date & Time: Thursday, September 18, 2025, 1:10 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Jonah Tong (Mets) vs Randy Vasquez (Padres)
- Stadium: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
On the mound for New York is Jonah Tong. The 22-year-old rookie has struggled in his limited MLB action so far. He has a 1-2 record with an 8.49 ERA in just under 12 innings. He has allowed three home runs in his 11.2 innings of work and is only in the rotation for the Mets due to injuries at this point in time.
Randy Vasquez will take the mound for the Padres here. Vasquez is 5-6 with a more respectable 3.72 ERA. Vasquez has been vulnerable to hard contact, which comes with the territory given how low his strikeout rate is. But he is the better starting pitcher in this matchup and will look to deliver the Padres another important win.
Playoff Picture
The Padres look to be safely in the playoffs at this point in the season. They are five games up on the Mets in the Wild Card standings and it would take a meltdown for San Diego to miss the postseason. San Diego is also still in contention in the NL West. The Mets can’t win the NL East anymore, but they are 1.5 games up on their competition in the race for the final Wild Card spot.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Padres have won three of their last four games to get to within two games of the LA Dodgers in the NL West standings.
- New York had a two-game winning streak snapped with Wednesday’s loss to the Padres.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Manny Machado | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Jonah Tong | Under 4.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Padres hold a 4-1 lead in the season series against the Mets.
- The home team is 4-1 in the five games between these teams this season.
- This is the final game of the regular-season series between New York and San Diego.
Padres vs Mets Model Projection
Score Projection: Mets 7 – Padres 5
Win Probability: Mets 55%, Padres 45%
Final Thoughts
I think we are in for a high-scoring game here, regardless of which team ends up getting the win. Each of the first two games in this three-game series have seen over 10 combined runs scored. I think we see a similar offensive output in this game. I’ll gladly take the over in this matchup from Citi Field.
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- Source: https://ats.io/mlb/san-diego-padres-vs-new-york-mets-prediction-9-18-2025/467288/