This Friday afternoon, a long-running National League Central rivalry reignites as the St. Louis Cardinals visit the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. The Cubs open as moderate favorites, as they look to extend their lead over their rivals in the NL Central standings on July 4th. Here, I break down this division matchup and make my Cardinals vs Cubs prediction for the day.
Our Cardinals vs Cubs Pick
Pick: Cubs moneyline (-158)
Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
- Date & Time: Friday, July 4, 2025, 2:20 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Colin Rea vs Miles Mikolas
- Stadium: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
- Broadcast: Apple TV+
Key Storylines
Pitching form
Colin Rea has been surprisingly effective for the Cubs since mid‑June, going 2‑1 with a solid 2.25 ERA in his last three starts. Mikolas has struggled this season with a 4.76 ERA. He most recently allowed six earned runs in just four innings on June 28. With both pitchers having ERAs over 4.00, both offenses will like their chances to do damage today.
Bullpen usage
St. Louis figures to be active with their pen early, with Mikolas likely exiting by the fifth. The question is whether their bullpen can keep them in contention in this game. The Cubs have a better pen, ranking second in the league in bullpen ERA, which should give them an advantage late in this matchup.
Recent team streaks
- The Cubs have won three games in a row, sweeping the Cleveland Guardians in their most recent series.
- St. Louis is slumping, dropping three straight to Pittsburgh by a combined 13-0 margin going into this series.
- The Cubs are 28‑15 at home and the Cards are 21-24 on the road.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | Over 1.5 Total Bases | -125 |
| Pete Crow‑Armstrong (CHC) | Over 0.5 Home Runs | +330 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The season series between these teams is tied 2-2 going into this game.
- St. Louis has been mediocre as an underdog this season, going 26-26 in that role.
- The Cubs are 41-18 as favorites this season, winning as favorites 69.5% of the time.
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Model Projection
Score Projection: Cubs 5 – Cardinals 4
Win Probability: Cubs 58%, Cardinals 42%
Final Thoughts
For me, the Cubs are in a great spot to extend their NL Central lead at home on Friday. Rea’s steadier form on the mound and home‑field advantage give the Cubs a clear edge over the struggling Cardinals. Mikolas’ inconsistency and St. Louis’ recent offensive slump further tilt the scales in Chicago’s favor. I’ll be backing the Cubs on the moneyline here.
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- Source: https://ats.io/mlb/st-louis-cardinals-vs-chicago-cubs-prediction-7-4-2025/434223/