The long-standing rivalry in the National League Central heats up this Friday afternoon as the St. Louis Cardinals head to Wrigley Field to face the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs are moderate favorites, aiming to widen their NL Central lead on July 4th. Here’s a breakdown of this division matchup and my Cardinals vs Cubs prediction for the day.
## Our Cardinals vs Cubs Pick
**Pick:** Cubs moneyline (-158)
**Confidence:** ★★★☆☆
## Game Snapshot
– **Matchup:** St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
– **Date & Time:** Friday, July 4, 2025, 2:20 p.m. ET
– **Starting Pitchers:** Colin Rea vs Miles Mikolas
– **Stadium:** Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
– **Broadcast:** Apple TV+
## Key Storylines
### Pitching form
Colin Rea has been effective for the Cubs since mid-June, posting a 2-1 record with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts. Mikolas has struggled with a 4.76 ERA, recently allowing six runs in four innings on June 28. With both pitchers having ERAs over 4.00, both offenses see opportunities for damage today.
### Bullpen usage
St. Louis will likely involve their bullpen early, with Mikolas expected out by the fifth. The question is whether their pen can keep them in the race. The Cubs have a stronger bullpen, ranking second in bullpen ERA, providing an advantage late in this contest.
### Recent team streaks
– The Cubs have a three-game winning streak, having swept the Cleveland Guardians.
– St. Louis is on a slump, losing three straight to Pittsburgh with a combined 13-0 score.
– The Cubs are 28-15 at home, while the Cardinals hold a 21-24 road record.
## Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Odds |
|——–|——|——|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | Over 1.5 Total Bases | -125 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | Over 0.5 Home Runs | +330 |
## Betting Trends & H2H
– The season series between these teams is tied 2-2.
– St. Louis is 26-26 as an underdog this season.
– The Cubs are 41-18 as favorites, winning 69.5% of those games.
## Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Model Projection
**Score Projection:** Cubs 5 – Cardinals 4
**Win Probability:** Cubs 58%, Cardinals 42%
## Final Thoughts
The Cubs are well-positioned to extend their NL Central lead at home on Friday. Rea’s consistent performance and home-field advantage give the Cubs a clear edge over the struggling Cardinals. Mikolas’ inconsistency and St. Louis’ recent offensive slump further tip the balance in Chicago’s favor. I’m backing the Cubs on the moneyline here.
- SCCG Management. The Gambling Industry’s Global Connector. Access Here.
- Source: SCCGManagement.com