On Friday night, the Seattle Storm will welcome the Phoenix Mercury to Climate Pledge Arena, with tip-off scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET. Seattle enters the matchup eager to bounce back from a lopsided 22-point loss to Phoenix just six days ago. On the other side, the Mercury are looking to extend their perfect start to the season and earn a third straight victory. Oddsmakers currently have the Storm listed as 7-point favorites for this Western Conference clash.
Mercury vs. Storm Game Preview
Phoenix has come out of the gates strong, securing two home victories over Seattle and Los Angeles to open the season. During those wins, the Mercury have averaged 85.0 points per game while shooting an efficient 46.4% from the floor. Offseason standouts Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas have quickly established themselves as focal points of the offense, combining for 45.5 points per game. Sabally poured in 27 during the season opener against Seattle, a dominant 81-59 win, while Thomas chipped in with seven rebounds and six assists that night, showcasing her all-around impact.
The Mercury are still awaiting the return of star guard Kahleah Copper, but in the meantime, the team has leaned on ball movement and versatility. They currently rank among the league leaders with 21.0 assists per game, using a high-paced, fluid offense to keep defenses off balance.
Seattle, meanwhile, has split its first two games. The Storm rebounded from the loss in Phoenix with a convincing win over Dallas behind standout performances from Skylar Diggins (21.0 PPG, 6.5 APG) and Nneka Ogwumike (17.5 PPG, 12.5 RPG). Despite the individual performances, the Storm have struggled to find a consistent rhythm in half-court sets, averaging just 69.0 points per contest — a number that must improve to remain competitive against higher-scoring teams like Phoenix.
Head coach Noelle Quinn has a flexible roster at her disposal, with rookie Dominique Malonga adding athleticism and Gabby Williams anchoring the defense. Backed by a home crowd and potentially benefiting from Phoenix’s thin rotation and key injuries, Seattle could find the spark it needs to get back on track.
Betting Breakdown
– Spread: Seattle -7
– Total Points: 156.5
– Moneyline: Seattle -250 / Phoenix +205
– Against the Spread (ATS): Both teams are 1-1 ATS through their first two games of the season
– Over/Under Trend: Phoenix’s first two games have averaged 164.0 points, both going over Friday’s line, while Seattle’s games have stayed under 156
– Injury Report: Phoenix remains without Kahleah Copper (knee) and Natasha Mack (back); Seattle lists Katie Lou Samuelson as out
– Revenge Factor: Seattle lost by 22 in their first meeting with Phoenix this season. Under Quinn, the Storm are 7-2 ATS in the follow-up game after a double-digit defeat to the same opponent
Prediction: Storm Set for Payback at Home
This rematch should play out much differently than the opener. Phoenix hits the road for the first time this season, and their short bench may show signs of fatigue against a deeper and more rested Seattle squad. Sabally and Thomas have shouldered a heavy load in the early going, averaging over 32 minutes each. If the Storm can neutralize Sabally’s perimeter shooting — she’s hitting 2.5 triples per game — and force Phoenix’s secondary players to operate in the paint, their defensive size and rebounding advantage could tip the scales.
Expect Diggins to set the tone for Seattle, applying pressure in the pick-and-roll and capitalizing on Phoenix’s average of 14.5 turnovers per game. The Storm rank third in the league in rebounding and should control the glass with Ogwumike and Ezi Magbegor anchoring the frontcourt.
With the motivational edge and home cooking on their side, Seattle is well-positioned to cover the 7-point spread. Given both teams’ defensive tendencies and Seattle’s slower offensive pace, the under on 156.5 points is also a strong consideration.
Pick: Seattle -7 | Lean: Under 156.5
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- Source: SCCGManagement.com