On Friday night, the Seattle Storm will welcome the Phoenix Mercury to Climate Pledge Arena for a 10:00 p.m. ET tip-off, marking the second meeting between the teams this season. Seattle enters the matchup looking to bounce back after suffering a 22-point defeat in Phoenix just six days ago. Meanwhile, the Mercury aim for their third straight win and hope to remain undefeated in their first road game of the season. As of now, oddsmakers have installed the Storm as 7-point favorites in what promises to be a competitive Western Conference clash.
Mercury vs. Storm Preview
Phoenix arrives at 2-0 on the season after back-to-back home wins over Seattle and Los Angeles, fueled by new additions Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas. Sabally is off to a torrid start, averaging 26.0 points and 5.5 rebounds while shooting 45.5% from the field. Thomas has also made an impact with her versatile skill set, contributing 19.5 points and 6.5 assists per contest.
In their season-opening victory over the Storm, Sabally poured in 27 points to lead the Mercury to a commanding 81-59 win. Thomas filled the stat sheet with seven rebounds and six assists, helping facilitate an offense that ranks top five in the league in assists per game (21.0), all while Phoenix awaits the return of injured star Kahleah Copper.
Seattle holds a 1-1 record, having rebounded from the lopsided loss in Phoenix with a solid win over Dallas. Skylar Diggins leads the way with averages of 21.0 points, 6.5 assists, and 2.0 steals, supported by veteran forward Nneka Ogwumike, who’s posting 17.5 points and 12.5 rebounds per game. Rookie Dominique Malonga and defensive standout Gabby Williams add depth and versatility. However, the offense is still finding its rhythm, averaging just 69.0 points per game—a figure that must improve to compete with top-tier teams like Phoenix. Fortunately for Seattle, injuries on the Mercury side and the energy of a home crowd could help tilt the scales.
Betting Breakdown
– Spread: Seattle -7 | Total: 156.5 | Moneyline: SEA -250 / PHX +205
– Against the Spread: Both teams are 1-1 ATS through two games.
– Total Trends: Phoenix games have averaged 164 total points through two outings, eclipsing Friday’s total, while both Seattle games have stayed under 156.5.
– Injuries: Phoenix remains without Kahleah Copper (knee) and Natasha Mack (back). Seattle lists Katie Lou Samuelson as out.
– Revenge Factor: Seattle was a 6.5-point favorite in Phoenix and lost by 22. Under head coach Noelle Quinn, the Storm are 7-2 against the spread in follow-up meetings after losing by double digits to the same opponent.
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Prediction: Mercury vs. Storm
This rematch has a markedly different setup compared to last Saturday’s blowout. For one, Phoenix hits the road for the first time this season and leans on a tight rotation—Sabally and Thomas each average over 32 minutes per game, with Thomas as the lone true playmaker in the frontcourt. Seattle, on the other hand, boasts a deeper bench and holds the league’s third-best rebounding percentage, thanks to its dominant interior duo of Ogwumike and Ezi Magbegor.
Expect Seattle to focus defensively on taking Sabally out of her comfort zone beyond the arc (she’s hitting 2.5 triples per contest) while forcing Phoenix’s supporting cast to score in traffic. Offensively, Diggins should set the pace with high pick-and-roll actions and transition play designed to exploit the Mercury’s average of 14.5 turnovers per game. The Storm should be able to control the tempo and create more scoring chances with fresher legs and a deeper bench.
All signs point to a bounce-back performance from Seattle as they seek to even the season series. Back the Storm to cover the 7-point spread and consider leaning under the 156.5 total in what could turn into a gritty, physical battle down the stretch.
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- Source: SCCGManagement.com