Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff will meet in a blockbuster rematch of the 2023 US Open this Saturday in the Women’s Final at the Madrid Open. World No. 1 Sabalenka enters as the -125 favorite over the fourth-ranked American, with sportsbooks giving her a slight edge to claim her third singles title of the season.
The final will get underway at 12:30 p.m. ET from Manolo Santana Stadium and can be streamed via TennisChannel.com.
Coco Gauff vs Aryna Sabalenka – Match Odds
– Sabalenka Moneyline: -125
– Gauff Moneyline: +100
– Spread: Sabalenka -1.5 games
– Total Games: 21.5
Saturday’s final will mark the tenth career meeting between Gauff and Sabalenka, but it’s their first head-to-head clash of the 2025 season.
Gauff vs Sabalenka – Final Preview & Prediction
Aryna Sabalenka enters the Madrid final in top form. She’s already reached finals in both Miami and Stuttgart this year and boasts a stellar 30-5 record for the season. She’s looked dominant all week in the Spanish capital, dropping only one set through five matches en route to the final.
Sabalenka is no stranger to success at this event either. This marks her third consecutive Madrid Open final appearance, having lifted the trophy in 2023. Her versatility across all surfaces makes her especially dangerous, and she’s been particularly strong on clay—making the final in three of her last four events on the surface. With a power game that can overwhelm opponents, she dispatched Marta Kostyuk and Elina Svitolina in straight sets in the quarters and semis.
Coco Gauff is also flying high following a statement win over World No. 2 Iga Swiatek in the semifinals. Gauff stunned the four-time French Open champion with a dominant 6-1, 6-1 performance. She’s dropped only one set en route to the final and enters Saturday with confidence.
However, context is important. Swiatek’s form has looked shaky recently—she barely scraped past Madison Keys in the quarterfinals after losing the first set 6-0. Against Gauff, she never appeared fully engaged, raising questions about her health or mental sharpness.
While Gauff’s win over Swiatek appears impressive on paper, she still enters this match as the underdog. Her clay-court credentials are limited—she’s never won a WTA 1000 title on this surface and hasn’t made a final on clay since 2022. Her forehand remains a vulnerable point that Sabalenka is likely to target.
Head-to-Head and Pick
Gauff leads the overall head-to-head 5-4, but Sabalenka won their lone previous clash on clay. Gauff has struggled to string together consistent deep runs this season—prior to Madrid, she had failed to reach the semifinals in six consecutive tournaments.
Sabalenka, on the other hand, is currently the benchmark in women’s tennis. Her strength, consistency, and experience on clay make her the more reliable pick in this final. While Gauff is undoubtedly a future star, Sabalenka’s form suggests she’s poised to make another statement ahead of Roland Garros.
Pick: Aryna Sabalenka Moneyline (-125)
- SCCG Management. The Gambling Industry’s Global Connector. Access Here.
- Source: SCCGManagement.com