Saturday’s Madrid Open Women’s Final will feature a marquee showdown between World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and No. 4-ranked Coco Gauff — a rematch of their 2023 US Open meeting. Sabalenka comes in as a slight favorite, listed at -125 by oddsmakers, as she looks to capture her third singles title of the season. Gauff, meanwhile, is priced as a +100 underdog, despite her impressive form throughout the tournament.
The action gets underway at 12:30pm ET at Manolo Santana Stadium, with live coverage available on TennisChannel.com.
Coco Gauff vs Aryna Sabalenka: Betting Odds
Sabalenka enters the final as a narrow -125 moneyline favorite and is favored by 1.5 games on the spread. The total is set at 21.5 games. Saturday’s clash will be their tenth career meeting, and their first encounter of the 2025 season.
Gauff vs Sabalenka Prediction
Sabalenka has been dominant all week in Madrid, a performance that reflects her stellar 2025 campaign. The 26-year-old Belarusian comes in with a 30-5 season record and is fresh off consecutive finals appearances in Miami and Stuttgart. She’s now reached the Madrid final for the third straight year, winning the title in 2023.
Particularly potent on clay, Sabalenka has made the final in three of her last four events on the surface and is targeting her second WTA 1000 title of the year. Her aggressive baseline game and superior power have overwhelmed her opponents, including straight-sets wins over Marta Kostyuk and Elina Svitolina in the quarters and semis. She’s dropped only one set over her five matches this week.
Gauff, too, enters the final with confidence, having also lost just one set en route. She stunned World No. 2 Iga Swiatek in the semifinals with a commanding 6-1, 6-1 victory — a result few saw coming, given Swiatek’s dominance on clay. However, the context around that win matters. Swiatek has looked off her usual form this tournament, notably dropping a 6-0 set to Madison Keys in the quarterfinals. While Gauff capitalized brilliantly, it’s clear Swiatek wasn’t at her best.
Despite the impressive victory, Gauff’s forehand remains a liability, and she has yet to win a WTA 1000 event on clay. She hasn’t reached a clay court final since 2022 and didn’t advance past the quarterfinals in any of her six tournaments this season before Madrid.
Gauff vs Sabalenka: Head-to-Head Insight
Gauff holds a narrow 5-4 edge in their all-time head-to-head, but Sabalenka won their only previous clash on clay. That surface edge gives the Belarusian a clear advantage in this matchup, especially given her current form and consistency throughout the season.
Pick: Aryna Sabalenka Moneyline (-125)
While Gauff has enjoyed a strong week, her results — especially the semifinal win — may have inflated the betting odds. Sabalenka, on the other hand, remains the gold standard in women’s tennis right now. Given the surface and their recent trajectories, Sabalenka is rightly favored and should take this match to continue her dominant run ahead of Roland Garros.
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- Source: SCCGManagement.com