The 2025 John Deere Classic tees off July 3‑6 at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, IL, and offers a ripe opportunity for bettors seeking prime value. With a modest field compared to signature PGA Tour events and the Open Championship looming the following week, several players sense a golden chance to get a win. Defending champion Davis Thompson returns after firing a record‐low 28‑under last year. Yet, this week’s spotlight shines most brightly on Ben Griffin, who enters as the betting favorite at roughly +1600.
Birdie production and strong putting will play huge roles at this par‑71 course measuring 7,289 yards. Below is my full preview, complete with my John Deere Classic prediction and in‑depth analysis of this event.
Our 2025 John Deere Classic Pick
- Pick: Denny McCarthy to win (+2800)
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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2025 John Deere Classic Preview
TPC Deere Run is known to produce scoring bonanzas. Over the past six years, winners have averaged -20 or better, with -28 sealing Davis Thompson’s record win in 2024. The course layout demands precision off the tee, crisp approach play, and excellent putting.
Denny McCarthy, one of the PGA Tour’s best putters, brings all three elements together, ranking among the top players on tour in strokes gained in putting and showing consistency in approach and distance control. His history here includes three consecutive top‑7 finishes, making this a huge chance for him to strike.
Ben Griffin, the favorite, is in great form, but his advantage lies partly in momentum from two wins this season, moreso than course fit. Jason Day offers upside, yet recent struggles off the tee raise red flags on a course that rewards ball‑striking accuracy. Longshots like Michael Thorbjornsen and Jake Knapp are tempting, but the winner of this tournament will have a low score no matter who it is.
2025 John Deere Classic Course Info
- Location: TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois
- Par: 71
- Yardage: 7,289 yards
- Greens: Bentgrass
- Course Record: 59 (recorded by Paul Goydos in 2010 and matched by Hayden Springer in 2024)
- Layout: A stadium‐style public course designed with fair but testing sloping fairways, mature oak framing, and water hazards that can punish errant shots.
- Scoring environment: Historically the ninth‐easiest course on Tour, averaging 1.57 strokes under par per round, ideal for precise ball strikers with hot putters.
Betting Odds
- Ben Griffin +1600
- Jason Day +2500
- Denny McCarthy +2800
- Michael Thorbjornsen +3000
- Si Woo Kim +3000
- J.T. Poston +3000
- Davis Thompson +3000
2025 John Deere Classic Prediction
Denny McCarthy stands out as both a smart outright winner bet to me. His combination of elite putting and course history ticks every box for TPC Deere Run. Griffin’s form this year is impressive, but McCarthy offers better course compatibility. Players at longer odds like Thorbjornsen and Jake Knapp have upside but fall short in overall consistency. McCarthy’s odds reflect strong value. At +2800, he’s underpriced relative to his course skills and recent form. My model projects him as a top contender for both outright victory and a solid leaderboard placement.
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- Source: https://ats.io/golf/2025-john-deere-classic-tournament-preview-prediction/430492/