On Tuesday, the Washington Nationals head to Busch Stadium to open a three-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals. St. Louis has dominated the season series between these teams so far. They will look to continue that trend against a Nationals team that has struggled mightily going into this game. For a full breakdown of this contest, including my Nationals vs Cardinals prediction, continue reading below.
Our Nationals vs Cardinals Pick
- Pick: Cardinals -1.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals
- Date & Time: Tuesday, July 8, 2025, 7:45 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Jake Irvin (WSH) vs Sonny Gray (STL)
- Stadium: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
- Broadcast: FDSMW and MASN2
Key Storylines
Pitching Form
Jake Irvin brings a 7‑3 record but a high 4.71 ERA into this game. He has been rewarded in the win column in 2025 but his numbers suggest a lack of consistency that could cause problems tonight. Sonny Gray will toe the rubber for the Cardinals tonight. He is 8-3 with a 3.51 ERA and is expected to get the better of the pitching matchup here.
Bullpen Usage
Both teams had Monday off and shouldn’t be dealing with too much bullpen fatigue. Washington’s bullpen ERA is the highest in the league this season. That should give the Cardinals offense an edge later in the game.
Recent Team Streaks
- St. Louis is 1-4 in its last five games and recently lost two of three to the rival Chicago Cubs.
- Nationals have lost three straight after being swept by the Boston Red Sox.
Best Player Props
| Player | Stat | Prop Line |
|---|---|---|
| James Wood (WSH) | Home Runs | Over 0.5 (+400) |
| Brendan Donovan (STL) | Total Bases | Over 1.5 (-110) |
| Sonny Gray (STL) | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 (–110) |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Cardinals are 3-0 against the Nationals heading into this series.
- Washington is 19-25 on the road this season. The Cardinals are 26-17 at home.
- The Cardinals have covered the runline in 55% of their games for the season.
Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Model Projection
Score Projection: Cardinals 5 – Nationals 3
Win Probability: Cardinals 64%, Nationals 36%
Final Thoughts
The Cardinals have not been great by any means lately. But they have looked incredibly competent compared to the Nationals. Washington is struggling heading into this series and I see no reason for that to continue. Don’t be fooled by Jake Irvin’s record as his actual stats tell a much different story. The Cardinals should win this game and cover the runline as a home favorite behind another strong pitching performance from Sonny Gray.
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- Source: https://ats.io/mlb/washington-nationals-vs-st-louis-cardinals-pick-7-8-2025/437628/