Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves Game 5 Preview & Betting Breakdown
The Golden State Warriors find themselves on the brink of elimination heading into Game 5 of their first-round playoff series against the Minnesota Timberwolves. With star guard Steph Curry sidelined since early in Game 1, Golden State’s postseason hopes are hanging by a thread. Despite battling valiantly in their last two home games, the Warriors surrendered second-half leads in both and now trail 3-1 in the best-of-seven series.
Set for an 8:40 PM CT (9:40 PM ET) tip at Minnesota’s Target Center, the Warriors enter Wednesday night’s matchup as heavy double-digit underdogs.
Game 5 Betting Odds: Warriors vs Timberwolves
Oddsmakers currently list the Timberwolves as 10.5-point home favorites. On the moneyline, Minnesota is priced at -550 (implied win probability of 84.62%), while Golden State sits at +400, suggesting just a 20% chance to force a Game 6 — a game in which Curry could possibly return.
The over/under opened at 203.0, with both sides drawing -110 odds.
With Minnesota surging, they’ve also climbed in the NBA championship futures market. The Timberwolves are now +550 to win it all, trailing only title favorites Oklahoma City (-120) and the New York Knicks (+500).
Series Recap & Betting Trends
– The Timberwolves won Game 4 in San Francisco 117-110, a high-scoring affair that went well over the betting total.
– Overall, the series is 2-2 in terms of over/unders. Game 1 stayed under by 17 points, while Game 2 cleared the total by 8.
– The winning team has covered the spread in three of the four games so far.
Against the spread (ATS) this postseason:
– Golden State: 5-6 ATS (45-48-1 including regular season)
– Minnesota: 7-3 ATS (45-46 overall)
Over/under records:
– Warriors: 5-6 O/U in the playoffs (48-46 overall)
– Timberwolves: 4-5 O/U in the playoffs (48-43 overall)
Public Betting Action
According to the latest sportsbook data, public bettors are showing strong support for the underdog Warriors. As of Wednesday afternoon:
– 81% of the moneyline handle is on Golden State
– 80% of ATS handle is backing the Warriors
– 91% of the O/U handle favors the under (203.0)
Game 5 Picks & Predictions
With his team’s season on the line, expect Steve Kerr to have the Warriors ready to come out swinging. Even without Curry, Golden State has been starting fast — they’ve led at halftime in four of their last five contests, including two double-digit leads in three recent road games.
Pick 1: Warriors First-Half Moneyline (+260)
Golden State’s recent first-half performances signal value here. They’ve shown the ability to jump ahead early, especially when facing elimination. Minnesota is just 3-2 on the first-half moneyline this postseason, opening the door for another quick Warriors start.
Pick 2: Jimmy Butler Over 26.5 Points (+175)
After a quiet Game 4 where Butler attempted only nine shots and finished a team-worst -30 on the floor, the veteran should bounce back in a big way. Renowned for his clutch performances in high-pressure moments, Butler thrives when backs are against the wall. Even in Golden State’s earlier elimination game against Houston, Butler stepped up across the board.
Expect him to come out aggressive and take control offensively in Game 5.
Final Thoughts
The Warriors, despite being short-handed, have proven resilient. With strong first-half performances and a sense of urgency, they’re likely to deliver another fast start. Minnesota, however, remains a heavy favorite to close out the series at home, especially with Anthony Edwards finding his rhythm offensively.
Whether or not the series extends to a Game 6 may depend on Golden State’s ability to maintain momentum beyond halftime, something they’ve struggled with throughout the series.
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- Source: SCCGManagement.com