UNLV vs Boise State Pick & Prediction – 10/18/2025

The game of the week in the Mountain West Conference this week will take place between UNLV and Boise State in Idaho. UNLV enters this game a perfect 6-0 on the season after barely escaping Air Force last week. They will have their hands full again on the blue turf in Boise this week. For a full breakdown of this matchup, including my UNLV vs Boise State prediction, continue reading below.

Our UNLV vs Boise State Pick

• Pick: Boise State – 12.5
• Confidence: 3/5

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: UNLV Rebels @ Boise State Broncos
• Date & Time: Saturday, October 18, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
• Broadcast: FS1

UNLV vs Boise State Odds

Key Storylines

• Can UNLV’s offense keep rolling? UNLV enters this game at 6–0 and has posted upward of 38 points per game on average. Their offense is dynamic, something we saw in their 51-48 win over Air Force last week.
• Defensive vulnerabilities for the Rebels. The flipside for UNLV is that their defense has been susceptible to giving up big plays. They allow nearly 450 total yards per game and their defense nearly wasted a 51-point game from their offense last week. Boise State will be the latest team to try and take advantage of UNLV’s defensive breakdowns.
• Boise State’s home dominance. The Broncos are 3-0 at home so far this season. All three of those home wins came by double-digits. If Boise plays anywhere near the level they have at home early in the season, they could cruise to another win on the blue turf.
• Playoff and conference stakes. This could be a championship game preview in the Mountain West’s final season before realignment. Both teams are 2-0 in conference play and the winner of this game will have the inside track to the conference title game later in the year.

Quarterback Play

UNLV’s Anthony Colandrea has thrown for 1,403 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. In their latest shootout against Air Force, he threw for 361 yards and added two rushing touchdowns, including a game-winner in the final minute. His rapport with receivers like Daejon Reynolds and Jaden Bradley gives UNLV an explosive offense through the air.

Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen has passed for over 1,500 yards this season with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions. Madsen has stepped up nicely this year without Ashton Jeanty to rely on in the running game. We could see the biggest game of the season from Madsen against a UNLV defense that gave up 48 points last week.

Betting Trends & H2H

• UNLV is 4-2 against the spread so far this season.
• Boise State is 5-1 against the spread going into this game.
• Boise State is 4-2 to the over for the season.
• UNLV is 3-3 on over/unders for the year.
• Boise State is 11-3 all-time against UNLV and 6-0 against them at home.

UNLV vs Boise State Model Projection

Score Projection: Boise State 41 – UNLV 27

Win Probability: Boise State 65% / UNLV 35%

Final Thoughts

UNLV has plenty of offensive firepower, but their defense is a liability going into a game like this one. I will lay the big number with Boise State here, as they should get enough stops to win this game by two touchdowns or so.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.

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• Source: https://ats.io/college-football/unlv-rebels-vs-boise-state-broncos-pick-prediction-10-18-2025/471455/