UL Monroe vs UTEP Pick & Prediction – 9/20/2025

Fahad Umar
September 20, 2025
6:54 am

The UL Monroe Warhawks will head to the Sun Bowl in El Paso to face the UTEP Miners on Saturday night. Both teams are still looking for their first wins of the season against FBS opponents after some tough non-conference games against power conference teams in their last outings. Here, we determine which team will get their first FBS win of the 2025 season as we make our UL Monroe vs UTEP prediction for Saturday night.

Our UL Monroe vs UTEP Pick

Pick: Under 47.5
Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot

Matchup: UL Monroe Warhawks vs UTEP Miners
Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 9:00 PM EDT
Venue: Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX
Broadcast: ESPN+

Key Storylines

UTEP’s Offensive Balance: Quarterback Malachi Nelson has thrown for 665 yards and five touchdowns this season. However, the Miners’ rushing game ranks 115th nationally, averaging just 115.7 yards per game. Improving this aspect of their game will be important for a well-rounded offense.
UL Monroe’s Defensive Resilience: After a 73-0 loss to Alabama, the Warhawks will look to bounce back in this game. This contest will be a great test of the mental toughness of UL Monroe as they are on the road after being thoroughly embarrassed in their last outing.
Home Advantage for UTEP: Playing at the Sun Bowl, UTEP will look to capitalize on familiar surroundings to secure a much-needed win. UTEP is 1-0 at home so far this season, though that win came against UT Martin out of the FCS ranks.

Quarterback Play

Malachi Nelson has shown promise for UTEP, with a completion rate exceeding 62%, five touchdown passes, and three interceptions. His continued development is key to the Miners’ offensive success. UL Monroe quarterback Aidan Armenta led an offense that was shut out last time out. He has one touchdown pass and two interceptions on the year and will try to improve against a less difficult opponent this week.

Betting Trends & H2H

UTEP’s ATS Record: UTEP is 2-1 against the spread to start this season.
UL Monroe’s ATS Record: UL Monroe is 0-2 against the spread to begin the year. They failed to cover the spread against Alabama and in their win over FCS St. Francis (PA).
Over/Under Trends: The total has gone under in two of UTEP’s first three games. UL Monroe is 1-1 in the over/under market to begin the 2025 season.

UL Monroe vs UTEP Model Projection

Score Projection: UTEP 27 – UL Monroe 20

Win Probability: UTEP 65%, UL Monroe 35%

Final Thoughts

I don’t like the idea of betting on either side in this game. I think that UTEP will win the game, but my best bet here is for the under to cash at 47.5 points. We should see both defenses play better than they did against power conference opponents last time out. But the offenses should still struggle somewhat and we could be in for a low-scoring game.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.

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