The Toronto Maple Leafs will visit the Detroit Red Wings on Saturday night. Toronto enters the game fresh off a 5–2 opening-night victory over Montreal, while Detroit dropped the opening game of their season to the Habs. Before these Eastern Conference opponents face off on the ice, continue reading to get my Maple Leafs vs Red Wings prediction.
Our Maple Leafs vs Red Wings Pick
- Pick: Red Wings Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Detroit Red Wings
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 11, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings Odds
| Odds | Moneyline | Puckline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto | −150 | −1.5 (+160) | Over 6.5 |
| Detroit | +130 | +1.5 (−190) | Under 6.5 |
Key Storylines
Recent form
- Toronto is off to a 1–0–0 start, getting a 5–2 road win over Montreal in their first game. William Nylander led the way with a goal and two assists.
- Detroit is 0–1–0 to start the season, falling 5–1 in their home opener against Montreal. The Wings surrendered three first-period goals and looked unsettled defensively.
- In their recent head-to-head history, Toronto holds an edge, winning three of four meetings from last season.
Goaltending
Toronto’s starter is Anthony Stolarz, who in his most recent outing posted a solid 2.01 goals-against average and a .935 save percentage. Detroit went with John Gibson in their opener, but he allowed 5 goals on just 13 shots before being pulled. Cam Talbot came in as relief and Detroit’s goaltending is under early scrutiny after such a shaky start.
Key skaters
- William Nylander is rolling early for Toronto and will be a prime threat given his scoring upside.
- Auston Matthews was quiet in Toronto’s opener, but he has consistently produced against Detroit in past seasons.
- Dylan Larkin is one of the few consistent offensive contributors for Detroit. Lucas Raymond and Alex DeBrincat will need to step up.
Best Player Props
| Player | Stat Type | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| William Nylander | Points | Over 1.5 |
| Auston Matthews | Goals | Over 0.5 |
| Dylan Larkin | Points | Over 0.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first road game of the season for the Leafs.
- Detroit is 0-1-0 at home for the year.
- Toronto covered the puckline in their first game.
- Detroit is 0-1 on the puckline for the year.
- Toronto went over the total in their first game. Detroit’s first game stayed under its total.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings Model Projection
Score Projection: Toronto 3 – Detroit 4
Win Probability: Toronto 48%, Detroit 52%
Final Thoughts
I think we will see both of these teams settle in somewhere in between where we saw them in their first games of the year. Toronto won’t be as good as they were in their destruction of the Habs, while the Red Wings won’t look as bad as they did in their opener. I’ll take the Red Wings to get a win at home as an underdog, as both teams should move to 1-1 on the season.
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- Source: https://ats.io/nhl/toronto-maple-leafs-vs-detroit-red-wings-prediction-10-11-2025/470689/