The MLB has a limited seven-game schedule on Monday, June 16. Shohei Ohtani returns to the mound for the first time since 2023, but I’m more focused on his batting performance. Check out my top home run selections today, including a +3050 longshot HR parlay.
The MLB lineup on Monday is sparse, with only seven games, starting with the Phillies against the Marlins at 6:35 pm ET. However, I’ve identified two promising home run picks. I’m betting on them individually and also placing a small wager on a high-odds parlay.
Home Run Picks Today (June 16)
For those on the east coast, these home run picks will start after sunset. My first selection is from the Astros/Athletics game at Sutter Health Park, with the first pitch at 7:05 pm ET/10:05 pm ET. The second is from the Padres vs. Dodgers, with the first pitch at 7:10 pm PT/10:10 pm ET.
Odds as of 10:40 am ET at FanDuel. Check SBD’s FanDuel review for the latest promotions and bonuses.
Home Run Pick #1: Jacob Wilson (+900)
My initial home run pick is the Athletics’ Jacob Wilson, the favorite in the AL Rookie of the Year odds, to hit a home run at home against Lance McCullers Jr. and the Astros. Wilson has only one home run in June and is currently in a seven-game homerless streak.
However, he previously faced McCullers on May 28, performing exceptionally well. Wilson went 2-for-3 with a home run and a double, driving in two runs. His first at-bat was a rare strikeout, the second was a hard-hit double, and the third was a towering homer to left.
McCullers has struggled since returning from an injury in early May, with a career-worst 4.91 ERA. His xERA and FIP are both over four (4.27 and 4.23). He’s also allowing a career-high 1.23 HR/9, with a velocity drop (91.9 mph this season, compared to 93.3 mph last year and 94.8 mph career average) and a lower ground-ball percentage of 42.9%. It hasn’t been under 50% since his rookie year.
Wilson offers excellent value to hit McCullers again at long +900 odds.
HR Pick #2: Ohtani (+215)
Excitement surrounds the Padres vs. Dodgers game tonight as Shohei Ohtani is pitching for the first time since August 2023. He’s expected to pitch only an inning or two, but I’m more interested in his batting against a pitcher he’s excelled against.
The Padres will pitch veteran Dylan Cease, a hard-throwing righty familiar to Ohtani. In 22 career at-bats against Cease, Ohtani has a .318 average with three homers, a double, and eight RBIs.
Ohtani’s State vs. Cease
Cease had an outstanding performance against the Dodgers at home previously, allowing no runs on three hits over seven innings with a season-high 11 strikeouts. However, that was the best start of the season for the 29-year-old, who has a 4.28 ERA through 75.2 innings. The Dodgers will have Cease’s pitch mix fresh in their minds tonight.
Last year, the Dodgers dominated Cease in the postseason, where he recorded a 14.40 ERA in 5.0 innings over two 2024 NLDS appearances.
Despite hitting only two homers in his last 12 games, Ohtani still leads the NL with 25 home runs. He’s the -260 favorite in the NL MVP odds.
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