The defending champion Thunder face the Pacers in a Finals rematch tonight, but both sides enter this game with key injuries. Our Thunder vs. Pacers predictions focus on Pacers +7.5, the under on totals, and strong prop plays for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Bennedict Mathurin.
These NBA betting picks are suggestions based on analysis. Outcomes in sports are unpredictable, so please wager responsibly.
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Match Overview
Oklahoma City enters this game as defending champions and already secured a thrilling season opener with a double-overtime win against Houston. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looked every bit the reigning MVP, dropping 35 points with ease. However, OKC is short-handed: Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso, and Isaiah Joe are among several key players sidelined, while Luguentz Dort and Cason Wallace remain questionable.
Indiana, meanwhile, is starting their season at home. The Pacers’ 2024–25 run ended with a Finals loss to this same Thunder team. Now they face an uphill battle without Tyrese Haliburton, who is out for the season. Pascal Siakam and Bennedict Mathurin will need to shoulder the offensive load. With both teams missing stars, this matchup may come down to depth and adjustments in style.
Pacers +7.5 Spread
Without Haliburton, the Pacers aren’t the same team offensively, but Indiana remains strong at home. The Thunder’s short rotation after multiple injuries makes covering a wide spread tougher, especially on the road. Backing the Pacers with +7.5 points gives us value, as their defense and Siakam-led offense should keep this contest closer than expected.
Under 230.5 Total Points
Both teams thrived on fast-paced play last season, but circumstances have shifted. Indiana is missing their lead playmaker, while Oklahoma comes off a draining double-overtime game that could slow them down. With OKC relying heavily on SGA and a banged-up roster, we can expect tighter defense and less scoring than the totals line suggests.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 Points
SGA is the focal point of OKC’s offense, and with multiple key scorers unavailable, he will have to carry an even greater load. He opened the season with 35 points and showed no rust as the reigning MVP. Against a Pacers defense adjusting without Haliburton’s tempo-setting, Gilgeous-Alexander should thrive and surpass 32.5 points.
Bennedict Mathurin Over 5.5 Rebounds
Mathurin’s role has expanded in Haliburton’s absence, and with Indiana’s offense needing balance, he will be more aggressive on both ends of the floor. His athleticism and minutes boost make the over on 5.5 rebounds appealing, especially against an OKC team that spreads the floor but may struggle with depth on the glass.
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- Source: https://sportshandle.com/thunder-vs-pacers-predictions-10-23-props-nba-best-bets/