Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 6/28/2025 – SCCG Management

Fahad Umar
June 28, 2025
4:28 am

The Tampa Bay Rays visit the Baltimore Orioles for the second game of their series on June 28, 2025. The Orioles have a 35-46 record, struggling this season, while the Rays are performing better at 46-36. This game is crucial for the Orioles as they aim to improve their standing.

Zach Eflin, starting for the Orioles, is ranked the 90th best starting pitcher in MLB based on advanced stats. He holds a 6-4 record, but his 5.46 ERA indicates struggles, though his 4.24 xFIP suggests potential improvement. Eflin is expected to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs.

The Rays counter with Zack Littell, who has a 6-7 record and a 3.78 ERA. His 4.57 FIP indicates he might have been fortunate so far. Littell is projected to pitch 5.2 innings and allow 3.4 earned runs, offering the Orioles a potential chance.

Offensively, the Rays rank 7th in MLB, while the Orioles are 24th. Projections favor the Rays’ offense, but with the Orioles’ low walk rate and Littell’s low walk percentage, there could be opportunities for the Orioles to exploit errors.

The game’s total set at 10.0 runs implies a likely high-scoring contest. Both teams are keen on securing a win, making this a significant matchup for the Orioles against the formidable Rays.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell’s fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this year (91.4 mph) compared to last year (92.4 mph).

Velocity is crucial for fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs; decreased velocity may lead to poorer results.

Hitters like Yandy Diaz, who frequently hit groundballs, tend to underperform against pitchers who induce many groundballs like Zach Eflin.

This interaction between the hitter’s swing plane and pitch trajectory can lead to diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few consider.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen is projected as the 3rd-best in the majors according to THE BAT projection system.

Many bettors focus only on the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen can make matchups tougher for opposing offenses and suppress game runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Zach Eflin’s extreme groundball pitching (44.9% GB% via THE BAT projection system) should make him less affected by the dangers of Oriole Park at Camden Yards — the 5th-ranked HR park.

This skill set suits the park well and may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Ramon Laureano has significant power (82nd percentile) but also a high strikeout rate (27.8% K%). However, Zack Littell’s pitch-to-contact profile (18th percentile K%) is favorable for Laureano.

This reduces his chances of striking out, increasing possibilities for hard, home-run contact.

Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.9% — 95th percentile), making him a good match for the park with baseball’s shallowest RF fences.