Aaron Rodgers Joins Pittsburgh, Alters Steelers’ Super Bowl Chances
Aaron Rodgers, at 41, is far from retiring. He ended speculation by signing a one-year contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday. This marks another significant move in a bustling offseason for the team. The question remains: will a 2025 Rodgers-led team make a difference? Personally, I don’t think so.
Super Bowl 60 Odds
Before Rodgers’ arrival, Pittsburgh’s 2026 Super Bowl odds stood at +4500, which has now improved to +4000. Despite this change, the Steelers remain behind leading contenders and trail significantly behind division rivals Baltimore and Cincinnati. Investing in a Rodgers-led team seems unwise, for multiple reasons.
Odds as of June 5th from DraftKings. Use the DraftKings promo code for NFL futures bets.
Why Pittsburgh Isn’t a Safe Bet with Rodgers
Rodgers’ performance has declined with age. His last top-10 season was in 2021, concluding his four-MVP era with Green Bay. His performance dipped after 2022 with the Packers, followed by an unsuccessful stint with the Jets.
His stats last season were below average for a starter. Even after a year to recover from a torn Achilles, Rodgers delivered the lowest average intended depth of target in his career. Despite more frequent short throws, his completion rate fell 7% compared to his last year in Green Bay. His interception rate doubled since his final MVP season, and his sack rate was among his poorest in a decade.
Rodgers’ Pass Performance – Last Four Seasons
Rodgers saw slight improvements in the season’s latter half, but against lesser opponents. Anticipated connections with Metcalf and Pickens need perspective; last season, he played with talents like Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams.
Despite possessing Breece Hall in the backfield and selective secondary targets, the Jets finished with the 25th ranked offense, notably nine spots below a Russell Wilson-led Steelers team.
Off-Field Issues: A Major Concern
This move appears desperate. Since 2016, Pittsburgh hasn’t claimed a playoff victory and aims to change that by going all-in this season. Yet, they’ve heavily invested in non-elite players.
Spending over $130 million on Metcalf is excessive, considering his similar capabilities to Pickens. Adding Darius Slay at $10 million also appears costly for a veteran cornerback.
Rodgers’ signing is especially problematic. Apart from getting a mediocre QB, Pittsburgh inherits Rodgers’ off-field antics. He struggles to avoid the spotlight and often shifts blame to others, which won’t sit well with Mike Tomlin. It’s likely Rodgers won’t have a long tenure with the Steelers.
The Steelers will stay sidelined in Super Bowl discussions, with continued drought in their division. Since 2020, Pittsburgh hasn’t topped the AFC North and isn’t as competitive as the Ravens or Bengals.
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