The Pittsburgh Pirates have not been known for their winning ways in recent times, but they’re currently riding a five-game winning streak as they face the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday. Although the Cardinals are favored, the Pirates have the momentum. Can Pittsburgh make it six in a row, or will St. Louis bounce back? Here is my prediction for the Cardinals vs. Pirates game on Wednesday.
Our Cardinals vs. Pirates Pick
– Pick: Cardinals Moneyline (-140)
– Confidence: ★★★☆☆
– Bonus Bets For the Game: Bet $5 and get $150 instantly with our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code, even if your first bet doesn’t win.
Game Snapshot
– Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
– Date & Time: Wednesday, July 2, 2025, at 12:35 p.m. ET
– Starting Pitchers: Sonny Gray (STL, 8-2, 3.36 ERA) vs. Mitch Keller (PIT, 2-10, 3.90 ERA)
– Stadium: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
– Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching Form
– Sonny Gray: Dominant with an 8-2 record and 3.36 ERA, shut down Cleveland over nine innings in his last outing, not walking any and striking out 11. Gray has a 1.09 WHIP and is 3-1 on the road this season.
– Mitch Keller: 2-10 with a 3.90 ERA. In his last start, he pitched 5.1 innings against the Mets, allowing only one earned run. Though his record is poor, he has shown the ability to limit damage.
Bullpen Usage
The Pirates’ relief is thin, but closer David Bednar is reliable. The Cardinals’ bullpen is stable, despite Tuesday’s shutout loss. Gray is expected to go 6-7 innings, giving St. Louis a bullpen advantage.
Recent Team Streaks
– Pittsburgh: On a five-game winning streak, including two wins against the Cardinals.
– St. Louis: Struggling in this series, losing two straight to the Pirates.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|——————-|——————–|—————————–|
| Brendan Donovan (STL) | Total Bases | Over 1.5 bases (-105) |
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | Strikeouts | Over 4.5 Ks (+105) |
Betting Trends & H2H
– Last 5 games: Pirates are 5-0 SU. Cardinals are 0-2 in this series and 5-5 in their last 10.
– Day games: Cardinals are 22-21; Pirates are 17-22.
– Versus LHP/RHP: Gray handles right-handed bats well; Keller struggles more with lefties.
Cardinals vs. Pirates Model Projection
– Score Projection: St. Louis Cardinals 5 – Pittsburgh Pirates 4
– Win Probability: Cardinals 55%, Pirates 45%
Final Thoughts
St. Louis is favored with superior starting pitching, bolstered by Gray’s strong performances and a thin Pirates’ bullpen. The Cardinals moneyline at -140 is recommended, with a close victory expected.
Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer, and broadcaster from New York, known for his insights on NBA, WNBA, and men’s tennis.
- SCCG Management. The Gambling Industry’s Global Connector. Access Here.
- Source: SCCGManagement.com