The Florida Gators will host the South Florida Bulls in an all-Florida matchup in college football on Saturday. Both teams come into this Week 2 game off of convincing victories in their season openers. The Gators are favored to get another lopsided win in this contest. Before the action begins in The Swamp, continue reading to get my South Florida vs Florida prediction.
Our South Florida vs Florida Pick
- Pick: Florida -17.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: South Florida Bulls vs Florida Gators
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 6, 2025, 4:15 p.m. ET
- Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
- Broadcast: SEC Network
USF vs Florida Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Florida –17.5 | Florida –1000, USF +600 | 56.5 |
Key Storylines
Florida’s dominant 55-0 opening win over Long Island University showcased firepower on offense and lockdown defense. But it also came against a small FCS school that spends its non-conference season taking checks to get blown out by FBS opponents. This game will be more of a test for DJ Lagway and the Gators.
South Florida’s surprising 34-7 upset over Boise State gives the Bulls confidence and momentum heading into this game. The Broncos were ranked going into that game and it looked like USF was the ranked team by the time things were done. They will try to surprise another ranked team here.
Quarterback Play
Florida got a strong performance between DJ Lagway and Tramell Jones Jr. at quarterback. They threw for a combined 251 yards and five touchdowns in the opener and Lagway will try to prove himself against a tougher foe this week. South Florida relies on Byrum Brown at quarterback. He completed two-thirds of his pass attempts and passed for 210 yards. He also rushed for 43 yards with two rushing scores against Boise State. He will need to make plays with his arm and his legs for USF to have a chance here.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Both teams covered the spread in their first games of the 2025 season.
- Both teams went under the total in their respective season openers.
- These teams have played three times in their history. Florida has won all three of those games and two of the three came by double-digits.
South Florida vs Florida Model Projection
Score Projection: Florida 38 – South Florida 17
Win Probability: Florida 89%, South Florida 11%
Final Thoughts
This in-state showdown should be a good measuring stick for both teams. We will find out if USF’s win over Boise State was a fluke or if they are a truly dangerous Group of Five team. We will also find out more about Florida after they tore up an FCS opponent last week. I think we will see an impressive showing from Florida in this game. Lagway should have a big game in his first real test of the season and the Gators should cover the number at home.
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- Source: https://ats.io/college-football/south-florida-vs-florida-pick-prediction-9-6-2025/465414/