South Alabama and Troy are scheduled to play in Week 6 of the college football season on Saturday night. The Trojans are 2-2 on the season and will try to get above the .500 mark with a win at home. But they are slight underdogs against a 1-4 South Alabama team here. Continue scrolling to get my South Alabama vs Troy prediction for Saturday’s game in the Sun Belt.
Our South Alabama vs Troy Pick
- Pick: South Alabama -2.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: South Alabama Jaguars vs Troy Trojans
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 4, 2025, at 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
South Alabama’s Defensive Challenges: The Jaguars have struggled defensively this season, particularly in their recent loss to North Texas, where they allowed 36 points. Their offense has been held to 19 points per game over their last three games. This has put additional pressure on the defense to perform at a high level.
Troy’s Defensive Strengths: The Trojans have shown resilience on defense, particularly in their recent victory over Buffalo. Their defensive line has been effective in pressuring opposing quarterbacks and the secondary has been solid in coverage. They have not allowed more than 28 points in a game this season, even in losses to Memphis and Clemson.
Quarterback Play
South Alabama: Jaguars quarterback Bishop Davenport has thrown seven touchdown passes and has four interceptions. He is completing just over 64% of his passes and will try to be more efficient in this game.
Troy: The Trojans don’t have a quarterback with 400 passing yards this season. They haven’t scored over 21 points in a game against an FBS opponent this season and will try to get more from that position in this contest.
Betting Trends & H2H
- South Alabama vs. Troy: South Alabama has struggled against Troy in recent matchups, with a 2-6 record against the spread in their last 8 games against the Trojans.
- Over/Under Trends: The under has hit in 6 of the last 8 games between these two teams. South Alabama is 3-2 to the over so far this season. Troy has gone under the total in three of its first four games.
- Recent Form: South Alabama enters this game with a 1-4 record, while Troy holds a 2-2 record, suggesting a slight edge in recent performance for the Trojans. Troy is 2-2 against the spread for the year and South Alabama is 2-3 against the spread.
South Alabama vs Troy Model Projection
Score Projection: South Alabama 27 – Troy 24
Win Probability: South Alabama 55%, Troy 45%
Final Thoughts
This Sun Belt showdown features two teams eager to secure a conference victory for the first time this year. While Troy has a better record, they have not been impressive against FBS opponents at all this year. I think that will continue here, as South Alabama should get their first victory of the season against FBS competition. I’ll lay the points with the Jaguars on the road on Saturday night.
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- Source: https://ats.io/college-football/south-alabama-jaguars-vs-troy-trojans-pick-prediction-10-4-2025/469766/