The Minnesota Lynx head into Sunday’s showdown against the Chicago Sky as heavy favorites. But the Lynx are playing the second game of a back-to-back here, and that could make this game more interesting. Here, I break down Sunday’s inter-conference matchup between Chicago and Minnesota and give you my Sky vs Lynx prediction.
Our Sky vs Lynx Pick
- Pick: Chicago Sky +14.5
- Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Chicago Sky @ Minnesota Lynx
- Date & Time: Sunday, July 6, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Lynx –14.5 | Lynx –1350 / Sky +800 | 160 |
Key Storylines
- The Lynx (15–2) are dominating at home (9–0), and are playing their fourth and fifth straight home games this weekend.
- This will be the second game of a back-to-back for the Lynx after they played the Golden State Valkyries on Saturday night.
- Chicago is without key center Kamilla Cardoso, who is out while representing Brazil in the FIBA AmeriCup.
- Minnesota’s offense is spearheaded by Napheesa Collier (24.6 PPG, 52.5% FG, 94.7% FT) and she will look to take advantage of the absence of Cardoso on the interior.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This is the first of four meetings between these teams this season.
- Chicago is 3–7 on the road this year, Minnesota is 9-0 at home, though they did lose to the Indiana Fever at home in the Commissioner’s Cup final.
- The Lynx are 10-7 against the spread this season, while the Sky are 8-8 ATS.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive Efficiency: Lynx rank first in the league in offensive rating, the Sky are 11th.
- Defensive Rating: Minnesota is first in defensive rating, while Chicago is 12th out of 13 teams.
- Pace: Chicago is fourth in the league in pace, while Minnesota plays at the 11th fastest pace in the league and will try to slow things down.
- Mismatch: Collier should get whatever she wants offensively in this game and could drag Angel Reese into foul trouble with Cardoso out.
Chicago Sky vs Minnesota Lynx Model Projection
Score Projection: Lynx 84 – Sky 72
Win Probability: Lynx 85%, Sky 15%
Final Thoughts
The Lynx should have no problem winning this game. However, I don’t know if they will be able to cover the spread in this game. Playing for the second night in a row could take its toll on the Lynx here, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them rest some players as well. Look for the Lynx to win, but for the Sky to cover the number as a double-digit underdog.
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- Source: https://ats.io/wnba/chicago-sky-vs-minnesota-lynx-prediction-odds-picks-july-6-2025/435750/