The Seattle Storm will play the Las Vegas Aces in Game 1 of their WNBA first round playoff series on Sunday night. The Aces come into this series on an incredible winning streak and they will look to keep that streak alive to start this series with a victory. Here, I break down this Western Conference showdown in the WNBA playoffs and make my Storm vs Aces Game 1 prediction.
Our Storm vs Aces Game 1 Pick
- Pick: Las Vegas Aces -6.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Seattle Storm @ Las Vegas Aces
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 14, 2025,10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- Broadcast: ESPN
Storm vs Aces Game 1 Odds
| Bet Type | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | Las Vegas −6.5 |
| Moneyline | Seattle +215 / Las Vegas −265 |
| Total Points (Over/Under) | 160.5 |
Key Storylines
- Las Vegas enters this game on fire. They have a 16-game win streak going into the playoffs. A’ja Wilson has had a monster season and took the Aces from being a fringe playoff team in the middle of the year to a title contender now. She will be expected to deliver another huge performance in her team’s postseason opener.
- Seattle had a much tougher path to the postseason. They finished with a 23-21 record and did not clinch a playoff spot until late in the year. They will need to find consistent outside shooting to keep up with the offense of Las Vegas.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- These teams split their four regular season meetings 2-2. Both teams took a game from the other on the road this year and a road win for Seattle here would change this series dramatically.
- The Aces are 22-20-1 against the spread for the season.
- Seattle has gone 17-27 against the spread during the 2025 regular season.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| A’ja Wilson | Over 24.5 points |
| Nneka Ogwumike | Over 16.5 points |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive/Defensive Ratings: Las Vegas ranks fourth in the WNBA in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating. The Storm are eighth in the league in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating going into this series.
- Pace of Play: Seattle is sixth in the WNBA in pace and Las Vegas is seventh.
Storm vs Aces Game 1 Model Projection
Score Projection: Seattle Storm 80 – Las Vegas Aces 91
Win Probability: Seattle Storm 35%, Las Vegas Aces 65%
Final Thoughts
The Las Vegas Aces are playing the best basketball of any team going into the WNBA playoffs. Las Vegas should win a 17th straight game by winning Game 1 of this series on their home floor. The question is how much the Aces will win by. I think that Vegas will win by double-digits and cover the spread to open this best-of-three series. Seattle may be good at protecting the paint, but A’ja Wilson’s ability to score from outside the paint will render that useless and Vegas will roll.
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- Source: https://ats.io/wnba/seattle-storm-vs-las-vegas-aces-game-1-prediction-9-14-2025/466639/