SCCG Management: Home Run Derby Odds, Picks, Matchups & Schedule

Fahad Umar
July 14, 2025
6:55 am

The 2025 All-Star Break kicks off with the Home Run Derby on Monday, July 14
Cal Raleigh, leading the MLB with 38 home runs, is favored to win
Check below for the latest Home Run Derby odds, schedule, and my picks

Prepare for a thrilling night as the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby happens at 8 pm ET at Truist Park in Atlanta. Seven out of eight participants are newcomers, with only Matt Olson having previous experience, having lost in the first round in 2021.

Continue reading for the latest odds, format, and my predictions for the 2025 Home Run Derby.

Home Run Derby Odds

Odds as of 10:55 am ET at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Cal Raleigh, who leads MLB in home runs, is favored to win the 2025 Home Run Derby at +295, with an implied win probability of 25.32%.

Oneil Cruz, leading MLB in average exit velocity (96.3), follows closely at +330. Jazz Chisolm Jr. and Junior Caminero are longshots at +1100 and +1200, respectively.

Home Run Derby Schedule

The 2025 Home Run Derby starts at 8 pm ET, live on ESPN and ESPN2, featuring three rounds: first round, semifinals, and finals.

The first round includes eight participants, each receiving three minutes or 40 pitches to hit as many home runs as possible. A bonus round allows hitters to continue until three outs, with outs being non-home runs. A 425-foot home run extends their bonus to four outs.

The top four home run hitters move to the semifinals. The format is head-to-head: the top hitter faces the fourth, and the second faces the third. Semifinals and finals follow the same format, with two minutes or 27 pitches. A 60-second swing-off resolves ties in the semifinals or finals.

Home Run Derby Picks

I predict James Woods will win the 2025 Home Run Derby in his debut. The 6’7, 22-year-old lefty has exceptional power numbers.

James Wood’s 2025 Power Metrics highlight his strengths. While not hitting fly balls as frequently, he managed 24 home runs before the All-Star Break. Truist Park favors lefties with its shorter right outfield, and Woods has already homered there.

The favorites worry me: Raleigh’s switch-hitting could disrupt his rhythm, and Cruz’s inconsistency is concerning, making his +330 odds less appealing.

Woods is poised to become a household name, showcasing stamina to win.

Home Run Derby Best Bet: James Wood (+450)

Home Run Derby Longshot Pick

While James Wood is my pick, Matt Olson is worth a longshot bet at his home park.

Olson, replacing Ronald Acuna Jr. due to injury, has hit nine home runs at Truist Park in 2025, with two recent ones in July.

Despite missing practice rounds, Olson benefits from no pressure, familiarity with the Atlanta heat, and prior experience. With an exit velocity of 93.8 and a hard-hit rate of 54.2%, Olson is ready to impress the home crowd.

Home Run Derby Longshot Pick: Matt Olson (+800)