Sam Houston vs New Mexico State Pick & Prediction – 10/2/2025

The Sam Houston Bearkats and New Mexico State Aggies will meet in a Conference USA matchup in college football on Thursday night. Both of these teams lost their Conference USA openers earlier in the season and will look to even their conference records at 1-1 with a win in this matchup. Before the action begins from Las Cruces, continue reading to get my breakdown of this game, including my Sam Houston vs New Mexico State prediction.

Our Sam Houston vs New Mexico State Pick

• Pick: New Mexico State Moneyline
• Confidence: 3/5

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Sam Houston Bearkats vs New Mexico State Aggies
• Date & Time: Thursday, October 2, 2025, 9:00 PM ET
• Venue: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM
• Broadcast: CBS Sports Network

Sam Houston vs New Mexico State Odds

Key Storylines

• Sam Houston’s offensive issues: The Bearkats have averaged just 16.3 points per game and allowed 42.8 points per game. Their offense has struggled to sustain drives and their defense has been gashed in nearly every outing. They gave up 41 points to Western Kentucky in their first CUSA game of the season and have to be better on both sides of the ball.
• New Mexico State’s home-field advantage: The Aggies are 2-0 at home so far this season. They beat FCS Bryant in their home opener and followed that up with a 21-14 win over Tulsa. That win over Tulsa has aged well after the Golden Hurricane upset Oklahoma State after that contest took place.
• Disparity in offensive efficiency: Power rankings show Sam Houston’s passing offense is a liability, while NMSU is more competent through the air according to our metrics. That could very well decide the outcome of this contest.

Quarterback Play

One of Sam Houston’s bigger problems is instability at quarterback. Reports suggest that Sam Houston’s QB competition between Hunter Watson and Mabrey Mettauer continues, with neither firmly separating himself. The Bearkats don’t have a passer with 400 yards through the air early in the season, as they haven’t figured things out yet. New Mexico State quarterback Logan Fife has eclipsed 1,000 passing yards on the season and will look to carve up the Sam Houston defense at home here.

Betting Trends & H2H

• Sam Houston is 0-4 against the spread. They are one of six programs in the country with an 0-4 record ATS.
• New Mexico State is 1-3 against the spread thus far.
• Three of Sam Houston’s four games this season have gone over their totals. This is largely due to their porous defense.
• New Mexico State is 2-2 on over/unders for the year.

Sam Houston vs New Mexico State Model Projection

Score Projection: New Mexico State 34 – Sam Houston State 28

Win Probability: New Mexico State 75%, Sam Houston 25%

Final Thoughts

Sam Houston is in a funk on both sides of the ball and that should continue on the road here. I expect the lack of a composed passing attack for the Bearkats to be their downfall, as New Mexico State should dominate the possession battle and wear down the Sam Houston defense. I’ll lay the points with New Mexico State here, as they should drop Sam Houston to 0-5 on the year.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.

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• Source: https://ats.io/college-football/sam-houston-bearkats-vs-new-mexico-state-aggies-pick-prediction-10-2-2025/468976/