The horse racing broadcaster has six selections on offer on a manic Saturday, including three from the final day of the Newmarket July Festival.
The action comes thick and fast on Saturday with the busiest afternoon of the year on ITV, featuring no less than a dozen races being crammed into three-and-a-half hours of mayhem. Whether you think this Saturday is Super or just plain stupid (given the weakness of next weekend) the challenge is to pick out the gems in a relentless afternoon.
The feature race is the July Cup at Newmarket, which does at least provide a welcome breathing space to focus on one of the leading Sprint races of the season. This division has been domestically weak for some time, and it is a little surprising that no international challengers are among the 15-strong field. Instead, it was Godolphin who rolled the dice by supplementing last year’s 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech to run at the trip for the first time in his career. It is that fact that worries me most, as the principle of supporting the ‘new kid on the block’ among some exposed rivals looks a good angle but the fact that Notable Speech was never seen as a sprinter – all his races have been at a mile – and he is favourite means he is passed over on Saturday.
If a race looks open, then tipping an outsider is the sensible path to follow and it is another Godolphin gate crasher to the top-level sprinting scene in SPY CHIEF 20/1 (16:35 Newmarket) who fits the bill. He was also supplemented, and steps down in trip from the 7f Jersey where he led the field for most of the way. This is only his fifth career start and his toughest assignment to date, but it would be wrong to assume he is just in the field to help force the pace for Notable Speech. The sprint division is crying out for a new dimension and one way or another it could be Godolphin who provide it.
Away from the feature, there are three horses who looked unlucky at Royal Ascot and have chances to gain compensation.
The first is MISS NIGHTFALL 15/8 (14:12 Newmarket), who was a very well-backed favourite in the Sandringham but met trouble trying to come through the field, eventually finishing a never-nearer sixth. The smaller field should make this less of an issue, and back at 7f she is likely not to be dropped out as far. The other plus is the record of her partner Saffie Osborne at Ascot (16/113, A/E 1.91), who is back aboard the horse having ridden her the time before last at Goodwood, where she ran a solid second.
Next up is MORE THUNDER 5/4 (14:50 Newmarket) in the 7f Bunbury Cup, who flew home in the Wokingham and was in front just a couple of strides after the line. While he has been reinvented as a 6f sprinter by William Haggas having run over much further for Sir Michael Stoute last season, it has always been a white knuckle ride. More Thunder struggles slightly to lie up early before powering home late, and at Ascot his luck just ran out. This step up to 7f looks the perfect balance, and it would be no surprise to see him competing in Pattern company at this trip before the end of the season.
The final one of the three is HOLKHAM BAY 100/30 (16:50 Ascot), who was also a little unlucky in the Wokingham but for a different reason, as he led home his group of seven on the stands side by 3l. The key to Holkham Bay looks to be his beloved Ascot, where his form figures read 2114. This time he will be committed to the other side having been drawn on the flank in Stall 1, but hopefully things will pan out more evenly.
It looks significant that WASHINGTON HEIGHTS 7/4 (14:35 York) is not asked to throw his hat into the ring for the July Cup as he looks to gain a deserved first win of the campaign. He is a very consistent sprinter who just falls short at the highest level, and his Haydock third has been franked by She’s Quality’s bold effort at Sandown last week. Apollo One is respected after being another one to run well in the Wokingham when trying to give weight away all-round. He is very much the stable flag bearer and looks the main danger to Washington Heights.
The best has hopefully been saved until last with TABLETALK 9/4 (15:45 York) in the John Smith’s Silver Cup, who is a much-improved performer this campaign. Twice runner-up at this level at Newbury, he ran much better than the finishing position suggested at Royal Ascot in the Hardwicke where, having been dropped in from a wide gate, he found himself undone by a steady pace and had an impossible task in trying to make up ground. He will certainly find the wonderfully tough Al Qareem a worthy adversary, but Rossa Ryan knows Tabletalk well and the return to the trip at which he won the Melrose at the track last season will suit.
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- Source: https://blog.betway.com/horse-racing/richard-hoiles-my-best-bets-for-saturday-at-newmarket-1/