It’s common for players to feel as if games are rigged against them, and video poker often elicits this suspicion. The evidence they cite is the long wait for a royal flush. Let’s examine this fallacy.
Generally, a video poker player might expect a royal flush roughly once every 40,000 hands. This number varies based on the game type, pay table, and the player’s adherence to strategy.
Playing 40,000 hands is a significant undertaking. Recreational players generally play about 200 to 400 hands per hour, while also socializing, using their phones, or watching other activities. With interruptions, assume they manage 300 hands per hour, equating to one hand every 12 seconds. At this pace, it would take 135 hours of play to average a royal flush.
However, a royal flush is never guaranteed. Each hand has the same odds of yielding a royal flush—approximately one in 40,000. Assuming a royal flush happens after 40,000 hands, a player averaging four hours daily would take over 33 days to achieve one. The average recreational player, visiting a casino once or twice monthly, might take nearly three years playing four-hour sessions to reach 40,000 hands. At two monthly visits, it would still require a year and a half.
Moreover, players often overestimate their play volume, believing it’s been “forever” since their last royal flush without knowing whether they’ve played 5,000 or 40,000 hands.
Players also tend to forget previous royal flushes, focusing instead on the next big win. This can lead to anxiety and impatience, feeling as if they’ve played more hands than they actually have.
Even with an accurate sense of hands played, a discussion on randomness and standard deviation is inevitable. While a royal flush should appear around once every 40,000 hands, it might take three times as many hands or more to occur. The 40,000 figure is an average over time, with the short term being unpredictable.
This reasoning also applies to players who claim not to have received other infrequent hands like a straight flush. Without the precise number of hands played, players likely exaggerate their play volume. Standard deviation can be harsh, resulting in long stretches of poor outcomes. Players remember these times because they must continually feed the machine, whereas they forget the better periods where wins come more easily.
Just because it feels like a long time since the last high-paying hand doesn’t imply that video poker machines are rigged. In key gaming areas, games are routinely tested to confirm that outcomes align with mathematical predictions.
Casinos indeed have games “rigged” to their advantage, but this is through short paying winnings rather than skewing odds. They profit from the payout structure and not through unfair gameplay.
In conclusion, there’s no need for casinos to rig games, as they will inevitably profit regardless.
- SCCG Management. The Gambling Industry’s Global Connector. Access Here.
- Source: SCCGManagement.com