Premier League 2025-26 outright betting preview: Our tips and EPL winner odds testing

The 2024/2025 Premier League title race was not as close as many expected, with Liverpool running away with it way before the season’s end. Arne Slot’s Reds were impressive last season and have rightfully taken the crown from Manchester City. 

That being said, all 20 teams have made a number of new signings ready for the new 2025/26 season, and squads are now taking shape with just two weeks of the transfer window remaining at the time of writing. In this article, we will take an early look at the Premier League winner odds.

Top 10 best Premier League winner odds

Premier League favourites

Liverpool

What more can be said about Arne Slot’s Liverpool team that has not already been mentioned? They finished the season with 25 wins, boasting the top scorer in the league, the most goals, and the second-best defence; it was a season of rights rather than wrongs for the Dutchman.

The club’s goal-scoring was the most striking part of their 2024/25 top-flight campaign, with talisman Mohamed Salah racking up 47 goal contributions this season, numbers that are wholly unprecedented. It has also been a busy summer for Liverpool, as they look to build on what they have achieved.

Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong, Milos Kerkez and Hugo Ekitike have all come in, and there is a good chance that Marc Guehi and Alexander Isak will join. The club have also had to deal with the tragic passing of Diogo Jota, and he will no doubt be in the players’ and fans’ thoughts throughout the campaign.

In terms of sales, Luis Diaz and Darwin Nunez have both departed, which means Slot is taking a gamble on a new forward line this season, which could easily backfire given how productive his team were last season. However, taking everything into account, it is no surprise to see that the bookies see Liverpool as the main favourite to win the title again next season.

Liverpool got off to the best possible start on the opening night of the new Premier League season, beating Bournemouth 4-2 at Anfield. However, the Reds certainly showed some vulnerabilities in defence, which should give their title rivals some form of encouragement.

Arsenal

While arguably a rather underwhelming season for Arsenal, it is easy to forget that they actually lost only four games last season, the same as the champions. However, they ended up 10 points behind them, as they were unable to win as many games.

The second part of the season was arguably better for Arsenal, who also reached the semi-finals of the Champions League. Although the team was close, but not exactly there, in both competitions. It will be another case of ‘we go again next season’ for the Gunners as they look for their first title since 2004, but this time, the Gunners will have their go-to striker after signing Viktor Gyokeres from Sporting.

The Swede scored 68 goals in 66 games for the Portuguese club, so Arsenal will hope that he can be nearly as efficient in the Premier League next season. He did not manage to score on his debut away at Manchester United, but Arsenal still managed to secure a 1-0 win at Old Trafford on the opening weekend of the Premier League.

Manchester City

After years of dominance, the Cityzens have finally shown weakness last season and while they managed to finish third in the Premier League standings, it was well behind the new champions and with plenty of struggle along the way. Pep Guardiola took the opportunity to include some younger players in his team selections after it became clear that Manchester City would not have enough to challenge Liverpool for the title, which should pay dividends this season.

Furthermore, City have already signed a number players this summer, including Rayan Cherki and Tijjani Reijnders, two players who were highly sought after this summer and who should be able to make an immediate contribution. Both players mentioned scored on their debuts in a 4-0 win away from home against Wolves on the opening weekend of the Premier League.

Chelsea

The Blues have finished last season in great form, securing a spot in the Champions League by finishing fourth in the league and winning the Conference League. Despite that, their odds of winning the Premier League next season were quite high.

Since then, Chelsea have gone on a tear to win the Club World Cup, beating the reigning European champions, PSG, in the final with a convincing display. As a result, their odds have dropped significantly, and they are now at 11/1 to win the Premier League.

Based on their showing at the CWC, these odds look very tempting. After all, Chelsea have won 14 of their last 16 games last season, counting the Club World Cup, and if they can keep that form going once the new season starts, they might surprise many and get involved in the title race in the Premier League.

Chelsea did not get off to the best start on the opening weekend of the new Premier League season, being held to a 0-0 draw at home to Crystal Palace.

Manchester United

It is hard to see Manchester United lifting the Premier League trophy next season after they have just finished the last season in 15th place in the standings. That being said, they did reach the Europa League final last season as well, and while they lost it to Spurs, this means they will be able to focus solely on the Premier League since they won’t be playing in Europe next season.

On top of that, the Red Devils have three important transfers this summer, two from Premier League clubs, bringing Matheus Cunha to Old Trafford for £62.5m and signing Bryan Mbeumo for £71m, and another from the Bundesliga, with Benjamin Sesko coming in to lead the line. Given their woes up front last season, this trio could prove to be exactly what Ruben Amorim needs to make United a contender once again.

However, while the Red Devils put in an encouraging performance at home to Arsenal on the opening weekend of the Premier League, they still lost the game 1-0.

Who will win the Premier League in 2025/26? 

It is hard to look past the champions, Liverpool, as the main candidates to defend the title, especially so soon after the end of the season and without knowing what the summer transfer window will bring.

Still, if we had to place a bet now, our choice would be Arsenal. It feels that after years of being the Premier League’s bridesmaid, it is their time to finally become the bride.

To achieve this, Arsenal will need Gyokeres to score at something close to the rate he did for Sporting. If he does, then their first title since 2004 could await.

Premier League outright winner betting trends

Here are some trends to consider when placing a bet on the Premier League outright winner.

The last 10 Premier League title winners

The past decade has been dominated by Manchester City, with six Premier League trophies following their first triumph back in 2011/12. The only other teams to lift the Premier League trophy over the past 10 editions are Chelsea, Liverpool and – most incredibly of all – Leicester, who stood as 5000/1 outsiders in some places ahead of their miracle 2015/16 title campaign:

Points gained by Premier League title winners

Based on current trends in the Premier League title market, the average requirement to win the Premier League over the past decade is for a team to get 91.4 points—a significant increase compared to the average tallies needed earlier in the Premier League’s lifetime.

City’s dominance has played a big role in that, especially with their record-high total of 100 points in 2017/18.

Number of goals scored by Premier League title winners

Teams that are particularly lethal up front may have a special market opened up for them, where a bettor can back them to hit a particular quota of goals. City have scored 90+ goals in all but one of the preceding seven seasons, and on three occasions, they even reached 100.

More Premier League predictions

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