The Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals are both below .500 this season. Yet, one will win when they meet in Kansas City on Monday night. Here’s a comprehensive preview of the interleague showdown between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Kansas City Royals, including my prediction for their series opener.
**Our Pirates vs Royals Pick**
– **Pick:** Kansas City Royals moneyline
– **Confidence:** ★★★☆☆
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**Game Snapshot**
– **Matchup:** Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals
– **Date & Time:** Monday, July 7, 2025, 7:40 PM ET
– **Starting Pitchers:** Andrew Heaney (PIT) vs Noah Cameron (KC)
– **Stadium:** Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
– **Broadcast:** FDSKC and SportsNet PT
**Key Storylines**
***Pitching Form***
– **Andrew Heaney (PIT):** Heaney is 4–7 with a 4.16 ERA. On the road, he’s struggled, going 1–5 with a 5.79 ERA and will look to improve against the Royals here.
– **Noah Cameron (KC):** Cameron boasts a solid 2.56 ERA this season but is 2-4. He hasn’t secured a win since May 28.
***Bullpen Usage***
Both teams are in the top half of the league in bullpen ERA this season. Pittsburgh is sixth in the league in bullpen ERA and will need their bullpen more than ever with Heaney starting.
***Recent Team Streaks***
– **Pirates:** 6–4 over the last 10, but were just swept in a three-game series by Seattle.
– **Royals:** 5–5 in their last 10. They won two of three against the Diamondbacks and have won three of their last four games.
**Betting Trends & H2H**
– First of a three-game season series between these teams.
– Both teams have gone under the total in 58% of their games or more this season.
– Pittsburgh is 12-32 on the road in 2025.
– Kansas City is 20-24 at home.
**Pirates vs Royals Model Projection**
– **Score Projection:** Royals 5 – Pirates 4
– **Win Probability:** Royals 52%, Pirates 48%
**Final Thoughts**
Noah Cameron’s ability to limit damage early sets up the Royals’ bullpen well, despite the Pirates having a better bullpen overall. Offensively, Kansas City has more reliable talent compared to Pittsburgh’s inconsistent bats away from home. My model projects a one-run win for the Royals. I’ll take Kansas City to win this game as a moneyline favorite, relying on hitters like Bobby Witt Jr. to help them earn their fourth win in five games.
- SCCG Management. The Gambling Industry’s Global Connector. Access Here.
- Source: SCCGManagement.com