Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays Game Preview – May 25, 2025
On Sunday, May 25, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays host the Toronto Blue Jays at George M. Steinbrenner Field in a pivotal American League East showdown. With both teams standing at 25-26, this game carries significant weight in a tightly packed division. Tampa Bay aims to build on their recent win against Toronto and gain momentum as the season progresses.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Rays will send Ryan Pepiot to the mound. Despite a serviceable 3.99 ERA, his 2-5 record and 4.72 expected ERA (xERA) suggest underlying struggles. Pepiot’s modest 19.9% strikeout rate could be problematic against a Blue Jays lineup that’s among the best at avoiding strikeouts—second fewest in the league.
Toronto counters with Chris Bassitt, who has enjoyed a stronger season. With a 4-2 record and a 2.83 ERA, Bassitt has consistently limited damage and worked deep into games. The advanced metrics favor him over Pepiot in this matchup, hinting that Toronto could have the pitching edge.
Offensive Overview
Offensively, both teams are facing challenges. The Rays rank 24th overall in team offense and sit 23rd in home runs—a clear sign their power output has been lacking. The Blue Jays rank slightly higher at 19th in offense but are even further behind in home run production, coming in at 26th in the majors.
Despite the Rays being slight favorites in betting markets (-115 moneyline), this game figures to be a close contest, with each team looking to break out of mediocrity and climb the AL East standings.
Toronto Blue Jays Quick Insights
– Chris Bassitt’s 42.9% ground ball rate, according to THE BAT projection system, gives him an advantage against a Rays lineup expected to feature three flyball hitters. This matchup dynamic favors Bassitt in limiting offensive production.
– Anthony Santander is expected to bat sixth today, a drop from his usual top-half spot in the order (93% of games this season). This could slightly lower his total plate appearances but might also present value in certain betting markets if pricing hasn’t adjusted accordingly.
– Santander’s high flyball pull rate (40.6%, 99th percentile) could pay off in this matchup, with George M. Steinbrenner Field featuring the fifth-shallowest right-field fence in MLB.
Tampa Bay Rays Quick Insights
– Ryan Pepiot has increased his reliance on secondary pitches this season, throwing them 57.4% of the time compared to just 49.4% last year. This shift could play in his favor, as off-speed pitches often yield better results than fastballs.
– Catcher Ben Rortvedt has seen a drop in average exit velocity, from 86.2 mph last year to 81.4 mph this season. That decline could limit his offensive impact.
– According to THE BAT X projection system, the Rays have been one of the league’s unluckiest offensive teams so far—ranking 8th in that category. This suggests they may be due for improved performance moving forward.
Game Trends
– Tampa Bay has hit the Team Total Under in 32 of its last 50 games, generating a return of +10.95 units (18% ROI).
– Toronto has gone under its 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total in 14 of its last 21 road games, for +7.60 units (32% ROI).
– Ryan Pepiot has finished under his strikeout prop in 17 of his last 25 starts, netting +7.40 units (23% ROI).
Final Prediction
Predicted Score: Toronto Blue Jays 5.19, Tampa Bay Rays 4.51
Date: May 25, 2025
Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
Starting Pitchers:
– Chris Bassitt (Blue Jays)
– Ryan Pepiot (Rays)
This AL East battle features two teams trying to shake off early-season inconsistency. With Bassitt on the mound and their contact-heavy offense, the Blue Jays look slightly better-positioned to secure the win in this close contest.
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