The Phoenix Mercury will face the Las Vegas Aces in Game 2 of the 2025 WNBA Finals on Sunday afternoon. Las Vegas won a close game to take a 1-0 series lead on Friday. They will look to grab a 2-0 series lead at home with a win here, while Phoenix will try to even the series at a game apiece and steal home-court advantage with a victory. Here, I break down this huge matchup from the desert and bring you my Mercury vs Aces Game 2 prediction.
Our Mercury vs Aces Game 2 Pick
- Pick: Las Vegas Aces –2.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury @ Las Vegas Aces
- Date & Time: Sunday, October 5, 2025, 3:00 PM ET
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- Broadcast: ABC
Mercury vs Aces Game 2 Odds
| Line | Phoenix Mercury | Las Vegas Aces |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 | –2.5 |
| Moneyline | +120 | –140 |
| Total (O/U) | 164.5 | |
Key Storylines
The margin for error in a Finals series is razor-thin, and both sides know what’s at stake in Game 2. The Aces have home-court advantage, and after escaping Game 1 with a clutch finish, they’ll be aggressive in seeking a 2–0 lead. Vegas bench production was a deciding factor in Game 1. Dana Evans poured in 21 points off the bench, Jewell Loyd had 18 points, and the Aces’ reserves outscored Phoenix’s bench 41–16.
For Phoenix, Game 2 is a must to avoid falling behind 2-0 in this best-of-seven series. Kahleah Copper provided an electric first half in the opener, but was held in check down the stretch. Alyssa Thomas flirted with a triple-double but missed two free throws near the end that could’ve tied the game. The Mercury’s supporting cast needs to step forward around its big three if Phoenix has any hope of evening the series.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
The Aces won three of the four games against Phoenix in the regular season and took the opening game of this series as well. Phoenix covered the spread in the opening game of the series, where they were 3.5-point underdogs on the road. The first game of the series went over the total by a convincing margin, with 175 total points scored in the game.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| A’ja Wilson | Over 25.5 points |
| Alyssa Thomas | Triple-double: Yes |
| Dana Evans | 2+ made 3-pt field goals |
Mercury vs Aces Game 2 Model Projection
Score Projection: Phoenix Mercury 79 – Las Vegas Aces 85
Win Probability: Phoenix Mercury 32%, Las Vegas Aces 68%
Final Thoughts
I think that we are going to see another tight game in Game 2 of the WNBA Finals. The difference between these teams will once again be their play from their benches. Las Vegas used to lack depth, but that has become one of their biggest strengths thanks to the presence of Loyd and Evans off the bench. I expect Vegas’ reserves to outscore the backups of the Mercury and for the Aces to take a 2-0 series lead before this series heads to Phoenix for the first time on Tuesday.
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- Source: https://ats.io/wnba/phoenix-mercury-vs-las-vegas-aces-game-2-prediction-10-5-2025/469802/