The opening bout at UFC 317 on June 28, 2025, is a bantamweight contest featuring Payton Talbott (9-1-0) against Felipe Lima (14-1-0). At T-Mobile Arena, both fighters bring impressive skills into an intriguing stylistic matchup. Talbott excels with intense striking and knockout power, while Lima showcases veteran-level technique, grappling, and fight intelligence. Here is my prediction for the Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima fight on Saturday night.
Our Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima Pick
– Pick: Felipe Lima by decision
– Confidence: ★★★★☆
– Bonus Bets For the Fight: Enjoy a special DraftKings Sportsbook offer where betting $5 gets you $150 in bonus bets instantly during this fight.
Tale of the Tape
| Attribute | Payton Talbott | Felipe Lima |
|———–|—————-|————-|
| Age | 26 | 27 |
| Reach | 70.5″ | 68″ |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Record | 9‑1‑0 | 14‑1‑0 |
Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima Preview
Talbott is known for his high-volume, power-focused striking, landing about 6.7 significant strikes per minute. He has achieved seven knockouts and one submission in nine victories and earned two Performance of the Night bonuses in the UFC. His sole loss was by decision in January against Raoni Barcelos, revealing some weaknesses under grappling pressure, but he has displayed exceptional heart and confidence in striking duels.
Lima, on the other hand, has remained unbeaten in 14 fights since his initial loss. Despite a modest 51% striking accuracy, he absorbs fewer strikes than Talbott and displays superior overall defense. His grappling is a distinct advantage over Talbott, offering a potential path to victory similar to Barcelos’ success against Talbott in January.
Lima’s pressure-oriented, technical approach may neutralize Talbott’s explosive attacks. By limiting striking exchanges with clinch work and ground control, Lima can disrupt the younger striker’s rhythm and power. Expect Lima to dictate the pace, integrate takedowns, and let his experience shine in the latter rounds.
Betting Insights
– DraftKings moneyline odds favor Lima at -180, while Talbott is the underdog at +150.
– The fight is expected to go the distance, with the over 2.5 rounds market at -195, compared to +150 on the under.
– Lima winning by decision has the shortest odds at +110.
– Talbott winning by knockout is available at +350 for those betting on his signature power.
Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima Prediction
Here’s my fight analysis:
1. Lima manages early exchanges with feints and pressure to close the distance.
2. Lima secures takedowns and maintains dominance in grappling, depleting Talbott’s stamina.
3. Talbott has striking moments, especially in the first round, but Lima gains control as the fight progresses.
4. Lima wins by decision, avoiding finishes but focusing on points and control.
This script aligns with statistical trends. Lima’s striking defense and grappling success should overwhelm Talbott’s less-proven grappling defense and endurance. Betting on Lima to win by decision at a value price seems the optimal choice.
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- Source: SCCGManagement.com