The AFC Championship brings the New England Patriots to Denver for a January 25 showdown at Empower Field at Mile High. This NFL Divisional Round matchup features two 14–3 teams with very different paths to this stage. Denver earned the top seed and enters with home-field advantage, while New England arrives after back-to-back playoff wins behind rookie quarterback Drake Maye.
This game sets up as a defense-driven contest. The Broncos are starting Jarrett Stidham after Bo Nix was lost for the season, while the Patriots lean on a high-volume passing approach built around Maye. Betting interest centers on totals and quarterback props rather than spreads, with pace, pressure, and game control likely deciding the outcome.
The Patriots vs. Broncos matchup will air Sunday afternoon on CBS and Paramount+ with both teams aiming for a Super Bowl berth. The betting focus here is on controlled scoring, passing volume, and how each quarterback handles pressure.
*Sports betting involves risk, and outcomes are never guaranteed. These picks are based on matchup analysis, usage trends, and current team context.
Patriots vs. Broncos First AFC Championship Game Overview
This AFC Championship matchup brings together two teams built in very different ways. Denver finished the regular season as the No. 1 seed and owns a 6–1 all-time record at home in AFC Championship games. New England enters as the No. 2 seed after defeating the Chargers and Texans while allowing only 19 total points across those two playoff wins.
The most significant storyline is at quarterback. Drake Maye continues to operate as the centerpiece of the Patriots offense, ranking among the league leaders in passing volume. Denver, meanwhile, will start Jarrett Stidham in just his fifth career start after rookie Bo Nix suffered a season-ending ankle injury. That change has a major impact on game flow, play calling, and scoring expectations.
Defensively, Denver leads the NFL in sacks and relies heavily on pressure from Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper. That pass rush faces a Patriots offensive line that has allowed pressure but protected Maye well enough to maintain high passing volume. New England’s defense has also played its best football in the postseason, limiting explosive plays and forcing long drives.
This is also a coaching contrast. Mike Vrabel’s approach emphasizes ball control and discipline, while Sean Payton is expected to protect his quarterback with a conservative game plan built around field position and defense. Denver has won both prior AFC Championship meetings at home against New England, a factor that reinforces the expectation of a low-scoring, controlled contest.
Below are the best Patriots vs. Broncos picks for January 25. These selections can be played at traditional sportsbooks like FanDuel or through regulated prediction markets such as Kalshi.
Under 42.5 Total Points
This game sets up for a slower pace and limited scoring opportunities.
Denver will start a backup quarterback and has little incentive to push tempo. The Broncos are likely to lean on their defense, field position, and conservative play calling. New England has allowed just 19 total points across two playoff games and has shown a willingness to slow games down when holding a lead.
The altitude in Denver further discourages tempo-heavy drives, especially in a playoff environment. With both teams favoring control over aggression and neither side needing to chase points early, sustained scoring stretches are unlikely.
This matchup profiles as a field-position battle rather than a shootout, making the under the strongest total play on the board.
Drake Maye Over 29.5 Pass Attempts
This prop aligns directly with New England’s offensive structure.
The Patriots do not project to run efficiently against Denver’s front, which forces the offense toward short and intermediate passing. Maye has consistently cleared 30 attempts in competitive games, and playoff usage has leaned even heavier toward his arm.
Denver’s pressure also encourages quick throws, screens, and checkdowns, all of which raise attempt volume without requiring deep success. Even if New England plays with a lead, their offense still flows through Maye rather than the ground game.
This prop benefits from both game script and defensive matchup, making it one of the strongest positions on the slate.
Jarrett Stidham Under 196.5 Passing Yards
Stidham enters this game with limited experience and a narrow margin for error.
Denver is unlikely to ask him to throw aggressively, especially against a Patriots defense that disguises coverage well and limits explosive plays. Expect a conservative plan built around short throws, field position, and avoiding turnovers.
New England’s defense has allowed minimal passing production in the postseason, and Stidham has not shown the ability to consistently push the ball downfield under pressure. With Denver comfortable winning without heavy passing volume, this under aligns cleanly with expected usage.
Jarrett Stidham to Throw an Interception
This prop ties directly into game flow.
As the game progresses, Denver will eventually need to throw in obvious passing situations. That plays into New England’s defensive strength, particularly in disguised coverages and late rotations.
Stidham’s limited experience, combined with playoff pressure and an aggressive Patriots pass rush, increases the likelihood of a mistake. Even one forced throw late in a drive is enough to cash this prop.
Use Playbook to Make AFC Championship Picks
Action Network’s Playbook tool allows bettors to generate wagers instantly from written picks or screenshots. If you see a Patriots vs. Broncos pick on social media or in a betting thread, you can tag Playbook to create a betslip in seconds. It supports multiple sportsbooks and helps streamline decision-making without manual entry.
- SCCG Management. The Gambling Industry’s Global Connector. Access Here.
- Source: https://sportshandle.com/patriots-vs-broncos-predictions-under-maye-stidham-props-afc-championship-nfl/