As UFC 317 nears on Saturday, June 28, 2025, attention is on the co-main event at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja is set to defend his title for the fourth time against New Zealand’s knockout specialist Kai Kara‑France. Former “The Ultimate Fighter” teammates now face off in the Octagon with the UFC title on the line. Here’s a breakdown of the match and a prediction for Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France.
**Pantoja vs Kara‑France Pick**
– **Pick:** Alexandre Pantoja by decision
– **Confidence:** ★★★★☆
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**Tale of the Tape**
| Stat | Alexandre Pantoja | Kai Kara‑France |
|——|——————-|—————-|
| Age | 35 | 32 |
| Reach | 68″ | 69″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Record | 29–5 (19 finishes) | 25–11 (15 finishes) |
**Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara‑France Preview**
Pantoja is at his peak, undefeated in the UFC since 2020 with a 7-fight winning streak, including three title defenses and a submission victory over Kai Asakura at UFC 310. With a BJJ black belt, elite takedowns (2.74 per 15 minutes), and a strong chin, he is considered one of the most complete flyweights in UFC history.
Kara‑France is the quintessential underdog, known for his explosiveness and fearlessness. After two losses, he secured a first-round KO of Steve Erceg in August 2024 and is known for his front-leg kicking and straight punching. With 12 KO/TKO wins and strong takedown defense, he remains untested against a grappler like Pantoja at his best.
The fight dynamics are clear: Pantoja will aim to control Kara-France with grappling and strikes from the top, while Kara‑France will need to start strong and leverage striking before the champion imposes his ground game.
**Betting Insights**
– Pantoja started at –215 and is now at -238 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Kara-France is the underdog at +195.
– The over/under for this fight is 3.5 rounds, heavily favored to the over at -166, with the under at +130.
– Pantoja’s shortest odds are to win by decision at +175 and by submission at +225.
– For those backing Kara-France for an upset, his odds to win by knockout are +550.
**Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara‑France Prediction**
Pantoja is predicted to win by decision or late submission. He is expected to control the fight in the middle rounds with takedowns, keeping Kara-France from landing significant strikes. Kara‑France might pose a threat early, but his lack of sustained offense makes finishing unlikely. In the championship rounds, Pantoja’s cardio and grappling should secure the victory, with a late submission or dominant decision as likely outcomes in this UFC 317 co-main event.
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- Source: SCCGManagement.com