The OKC Thunder are strong favorites against the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals this Thursday. The Thunder have suffered only one home defeat in the postseason, while the Pacers hold a 6-2 record on the road. Check out my Pacers vs Thunder picks and predictions, along with the top odds for Game 1.
The 2025 NBA Finals kicks off on Thursday, June 5th, with the Western Conference’s top seed, the Oklahoma City Thunder (80-18, 43-7 home, 59-35-4 ATS), hosting the Eastern Conference’s fourth seed, the Indiana Pacers (62-36, 26-22 away, 47-49-2 ATS) in the first game of the series. The game is set to start at 7:35 pm CT/8:35 pm ET at the Paycom Center, where the Thunder are 8-1 straight-up this postseason.
Despite Indiana’s strong performance on the road during the Eastern Conference finals, sportsbooks view Rick Carlisle’s team as unlikely to win Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Below is a table with the best available odds for point spread, moneyline, and total game points.
Pacers vs Thunder Odds
After a five-day break, the lines have stabilized across bookmakers. The spread is set at OKC -9.5 universally, with ESPN Bet offering the best odds on OKC covering at -105. Bet365, BetMGM, and Caesars present the best odds for Indiana to cover at -110.
There’s some variation in the moneyline for Thursday’s NBA odds. BetMGM lists the Pacers at +340, compared to +320 at DraftKings, which offers the best moneyline for the Thunder at -410. OKC is priced as high as -455 on other sites.
The game total ranges from 230.5 to 231.0. DraftKings offers -108 for under 231.0, while FanDuel and ESPN Bet list over 230.5 at -110.
Odds as of June 5th. Activate the BetMGM promo code before betting on the NBA Finals.
Indiana’s Game 1 odds may look grim, but their NBA Championship odds suggest even slimmer chances. Ahead of Game 1, Indiana is +505 to win their first franchise title, while the Thunder are -706 favorites for their first championship since moving from Seattle. (The Supersonics won the NBA title in 1979.)
The current championship odds suggest an 84.12% implied win probability for the Thunder, while the Pacers are at 15.88%.
This isn’t the first time the Pacers have been significant underdogs this postseason. After defeating the Bucks in five games as -190 favorites, Indiana overcame the Cavaliers in five games as +360 underdogs in the second round. They dispatched the Knicks in six games in the East final as +120 underdogs.
OKC was heavily favored in each of the first three rounds. The Thunder swept the Grizzlies as -1800 favorites, narrowly edged out Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets in seven games as -700 favorites, and needed just five games to claim the West title against the Timberwolves as -265 favorites.
Pacers vs Thunder Picks for Game 1
The Thunder have been defensively strong in the first quarters of all three Game 1s so far, conceding just 20 points to Memphis, 26 to Denver, and 23 to Minnesota, and all those quarters stayed well under 56.5 points, averaging 49.3 points.
While the Pacers have consistently scored over 56.5 in their Game 1 first quarters, they face an elite defense for the first time this postseason. The strongest defense they’ve encountered is Cleveland, which was eighth in D-Rating (111.8) during the regular season. The Bucks were 12th and the Knicks were 13th.
The Thunder topped D-Rating with 106.6, far ahead of Orlando (second place), with a gap larger than that between Orlando and the seventh-ranked Golden State (111.0).
Both teams have had at least five days off (eight days for OKC), likely affecting early offensive momentum. Despite OKC’s defensive prowess, I’m picking Indiana to cover the 9.5-point spread, a substantial margin against a team as deep as the Pacers.
Pascal Siakam leads the team with 21.1 PPG in the playoffs, one of six Pacers scoring in double figures. They boast arguably the best point guard in Tyrese Haliburton (18.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 9.8 APG), adept at involving any hot hand, whether it’s Siakam, Myles Turner (15.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.4 APG), Aaron Nesmith (
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