The Ottawa Senators and Tampa Bay Lightning will meet in the first game of the 2025-26 NHL season for both sides. Both teams come into this season with optimism after making the Stanley Cup Playoffs a season ago. They will try to kickstart a deeper playoff run with a win to open this season. Before the puck drops from Tampa, continue reading to get my Senators vs Lightning prediction below.
Our Senators vs Lightning Pick
- Pick: Senators Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date & Time: Thursday, October 9, 2025, 7:05 PM ET
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Senators vs Lightning Odds
| Line Type | Odds |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ottawa +140 | Tampa Bay –164 |
| Puckline | Ottawa +1.5 (–180) | Tampa –1.5 (+150) |
| Total | 6.5 |
Key Storylines
Recent Form
This is the first game of the season for both of these teams. Tampa Bay went 47-27-8 and finished second in the Atlantic Division a season ago. Ottawa ended 2024-25 at 45-30-7, clinching a wild card berth after a multi-year playoff drought. Expectations are cautiously optimistic in Ottawa’s camp, while Tampa is viewed as a contender in their division.
Goaltending
Tampa is expected to lean on Andrei Vasilevskiy, one of the league’s elite netminders. His consistency in past campaigns gives the Lightning a strong baseline to work with in net after putting up a 2.18 GAA a season ago. Ottawa’s goaltender is likely to be Linus Ullmark for the bulk of this season after he went 25-14-3 a season ago.
Key Skaters
Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Jake Guentzel will be among the most important skaters for the Lightning going into this season. Their power play is expected to remain a weapon. For Ottawa, the offense will lean heavily on Tim Stützle and Brady Tkachuk, assuming they stay healthy. Ottawa’s depth beyond its top lines will be tested against a quality opponent here.
Best Player Props
| Player | Stat Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | Points | Over 1.5 |
| Brayden Point | Goals | Over 0.5 |
| Tim Stützle | Points | Over 0.5 |
| Brady Tkachuk | Goals | Over 0.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Tampa went 29-8-4 at home during the regular season last year.
- Ottawa was 18-19-4 on the road during the 2024-25 regular season.
Senators vs Lightning Model Projection
Score Projection: Ottawa 4 – Tampa Bay 3
Win Probability: Ottawa 50% | Tampa Bay 50%
Final Thoughts
This should be an evenly matched game between Atlantic Division opponents. The Senators struggled on the road a season ago, but they have more than enough talent to compete with Tampa Bay here. I’ll take the Sens to pull off an upset on the road against a Tampa Bay team that should be fine in the long run despite taking a loss in their season opener on Thursday night.
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- Source: https://ats.io/nhl/ottawa-senators-vs-tampa-bay-lightning-prediction-10-9-2025/470246/