The Ole Miss Rebels will visit the Kentucky Wildcats in a huge college football matchup on Saturday. Both teams got wins in their season opening contests against non-conference opponents from smaller leagues. They will face their first SEC test of the season a season after Kentucky shocked Ole Miss a season ago. Can the Rebels avoid another upset against the Wildcats? Continue reading to get my Ole Miss vs Kentucky prediction for Saturday’s game.
Our Ole Miss vs Kentucky Pick
- Pick: Under 50.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Ole Miss Rebels vs Kentucky Wildcats
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 6, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
- Venue: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
- Broadcast: ABC
Ole Miss vs Kentucky Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss –10.5 | Ole Miss –400 / Kentucky +300 | 50.5 |
Key Storylines
- Ole Miss seeks payback after last year’s shocking 20–17 loss to Kentucky. That early-season loss helped to derail the playoff hopes of Lane Kiffin’s team and they will try to avoid a similar fate here.
- Kentucky’s offense is powered by its rushing game given that their passing game struggled in Week 1 against Toledo.
- Both teams turned the ball over multiple times in their openers. Ole Miss had three turnovers and Kentucky fumbled three times. Both teams will need to take better care of the football in this contest if they want to win.
- Ole Miss is making its first road trip with new starting quarterback Austin Simmons and how he handles a game of this magnitude on the road will be very interesting to monitor.
Quarterback Play
Austin Simmons made his first career start last week and displayed big-play potential. He completed 20 of 31 passes for 341 yards and three touchdowns. But he also threw two interceptions and lost a fumble. Kentucky’s passing output was disappointing as QB Zach Calzada managed just 85 passing yards with one interception. They will need more from their passing game to win this game over a fellow SEC squad.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Ole Miss covered the spread in their first game of the season against Georgia State.
- Kentucky failed to cover the number in their eight-point win over Toledo.
- Ole Miss is 29-14-1 all-time against Kentucky.
Ole Miss vs Kentucky Model Projection
Score Projection: Ole Miss 28 – Kentucky 17
Win Probability: Ole Miss 75%, Kentucky 25%
Final Thoughts
Ole Miss brings overwhelming offensive firepower into Kentucky’s building. But the Rebels had a lethal offense last season as well and that didn’t stop Kentucky from upsetting them in Oxford. This game is by no means a slam dunk for the Rebels and they should know that after last year’s result. I think Ole Miss will win the game, but I don’t think it is worth laying all of those points with Lane Kiffin’s group here. Instead, I recommend taking the under, as Kentucky’s defense and slow tempo should lead to a lower-scoring game.
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- Source: https://ats.io/college-football/ole-miss-vs-kentucky-pick-prediction-9-6-2025/465093/