With Derek Carr’s retirement shaking up the quarterback situation in New Orleans, the competition to start under center for the Saints in Week 1 of the 2025 season has officially begun. Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler, and Jake Haener are all battling for the top spot, but Shough currently leads the race—at least according to the latest betting odds.
Shough, who spent time at Oregon and Texas Tech before transferring to Louisville, had a solid but unspectacular final college season. Despite a journey marked by injuries and inconsistency, he’s now emerging as the favorite to take over as QB1 in the post-Carr era. His draft selection in April came with questions about his ceiling, but circumstances have thrust him to the forefront of the Saints’ plans.
Saints QB Odds – Week 1 Starter
First-year head coach Kellen Moore has emphasized that this is an open competition. Haener, a fourth-round pick in 2023, hasn’t done much to move the needle. Unless he shows major growth during training camp, his chances look slim. Meanwhile, Rattler—despite some NFL experience—has largely failed to impress.
Is Tyler Shough the Front-Runner?
The Saints’ offensive struggles last season were well documented. After scoring 91 points through their first two games, the team’s offense collapsed, averaging fewer than 16.5 points per game the rest of the way. Statistically, they ranked near the bottom of the league across most offensive categories.
A lack of weapons and consistency contributed to the team’s downfall. For this offense to move forward, several things need to go right: the receiving corps must stay healthy, Alvin Kamara has to find his former explosiveness, and rookie left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. must quickly adjust to the pro level.
Shough’s journey to this point hasn’t been pretty. Now 25 years old, he spent seven seasons in college and fought through several injuries, particularly during his time at Texas Tech. Despite finishing 8-4 at Louisville, scouts remain skeptical about whether his play style—especially his perceived mobility—can succeed in the NFL.
Still, in a shaky quarterback room, Shough offers perhaps the highest ceiling. Whether he has the tools to realize that potential is another question altogether.
2024 Saints Quarterback Situations
The Saints’ 2024 quarterback carousel was nothing short of chaotic. Haener missed six games due to suspension and was benched midway through his only start. Rattler, thrown into action despite being less than 100%, fared no better. He was sacked 22 times in just seven appearances and averaged fewer than six yards per attempt. For reference, the league average in 2024 was 7.0.
Rattler’s 0-6 record and lopsided turnover ratio (two turnovers for every touchdown) cast serious doubt on his NFL future. Still, he remains second on the depth chart simply because Haener has struggled even more.
Taysom Hill, a versatile offensive weapon, could technically be added to the mix, but barring injury or complete disaster, it appears unlikely the coaching staff would turn to him.
Is There a Long-Term Plan?
The Saints may already be looking ahead to 2026. With a weak quarterback room and a team unlikely to compete for a playoff spot, there’s growing speculation that the front office has one eye on the next draft. Arch Manning, currently the favorite to be the first overall pick in 2026, might just be the real target for New Orleans.
For now, though, it’s Shough’s job to lose. Rattler may start more games as the season progresses—more out of necessity than merit—but expectations for this group are modest at best.
Prediction: Who Starts Week 1?
Expect Tyler Shough to get the nod in Week 1. The Saints have seen enough of Haener and Rattler to believe the Louisville product deserves at least a short opportunity. Preseason won’t provide a definitive answer, but unless someone else vastly outperforms expectations, Shough should take the first regular-season snap.
Just don’t be surprised if the situation changes quickly as the season unfolds.
Pick: Tyler Shough (-260) to be the Saints’ Week 1 starter at quarterback.
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- Source: SCCGManagement.com