- The 2025 Kentucky Derby gets underway on Saturday, May 3rd
- Journalism is currently the +250 favorite
- Find all the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, predictions, and my expert picks, below
The 151st Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 3rd, from Churchill Downs racetrack in Louisville, Kentucky. Journalism enters the “Run for the Roses” as a +225 favorite, followed by Sovereignty (+450), Luxor Cafe (+800), Burnham Square (+850), and Sandman (+850). The 2025 Kentucky Derby has a post of time 6:57 pm ET on Saturday on NBC and Peacock. Get your bets in before these odds fall, and don’t miss the fastest two minutes in sports.
Dive into the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, with all my analysis and best bets, below.
2025 Kentucky Derby Odds
Santa Anita Derby-winner Journalism is the +250 favorite in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, followed by Sovereignty at +500. Luxor Cafe and Sandman are co-third-favorites at +800.
Odds as of May 1st at Bet365. Find the top sports betting bonus codes for your horse racing action.
2025 Kentucky Derby Best Bet: Luxor Cafe +800
Sired by 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Luxor Cafe has been putting on a show on the horse racing circuit in Japan. His pedigree and pace are more than good enough to win the “Run for the Roses”. The Kentucky-bred Colt came from behind to win Fukuryu Stakes by five lengths, flying around the final corner to decimate his competition. Before that, Luxor Cafe dominated fellow Kentucky Derby contender Admire Daytona at the Hyacinth Stakes, beating the UAE Derby winner by 10 lengths.
Crucially, Luxor Cafe finished the final three-eighths on that race in a sparkling 36.51 seconds. It’s important to note, 10 of the last 13, and 20 of the last 27 Kentucky Derby winners have finished the final three-eighths of their last prep race in under 38 seconds.
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Now, the Japanese starts won’t have any Beyer Speed scores associated to them. However, his fastest performances line up well with the fastest horses in the Kentucky Derby field. Look for Luxor Cafe to unleash his explosive acceleration and win the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
Best Kentucky Derby Value Bet: Grande +2200
Grande fired late at the 2025 Wood Memorial Stakes, finishing second to Bob Baffert-trained Rodriguez. Owned by Mike Repole of Forte, Fierceness and Uncle Mo fame, the colt is the least experienced in the Kentucky Derby field, but has the speed to pull off the upset. Grande has run only three races, but has two victories to show for it, all on dirt, with his only other start being the second-place finish in the Wood Memorial.
Legendary trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Kentucky Derby twice, with Always Dreaming in 2017, and Super Saver in 2010. On top of that, Grande was sired by the same horse as 2025 Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism, and is the son of 2007 and 2008 Horse of the Year Curlin. The Grade 1 stakes winning pedigree is certainly on display as Curlin won 11 of his 16 career starts, most notably the 2007 Preakness. Curlin finished in the top three in all three legs of the Triple Crown, so Grande is a great bet to make a late push and finish in the money.
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Much like Luxor Cafe, Grande finished strong in his final prep race finishing his final three-eighths of the Wood Memorial in 37.24 seconds. Grande earned a flying 97 Beyer Speed Figure for that effort, and manyother speed figures which take into account lost early ground give Grande a better figure that Rodriguez. Take into account his wide path around the field, and with a better path, Grande displayed the speed to catch his rival over a longer distance. Grande will get that chance on Saturday with experienced jockey John Velazquez guiding him.
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- Source: https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/horses/odds-kentucky-derby-expert-picks-predictions-2025/