Earlier this year in April, the New York Yankees triumphed over the Kansas City Royals in the first leg of last season’s ALDS rematch, securing three significant wins, each coming from closely contested games and impressive comebacks.
Now, it’s Kansas City’s chance to host a three-game series, although they currently aren’t in a favorable playoff position. They’re sitting fourth in the AL Central, trailing 8.5 games behind the leading Detroit. Meanwhile, the Yankees maintain a four-game lead over the Rays and Blue Jays in the AL East, even after losing a weekend series to the Red Sox.
Both teams are poised for a comeback, as they have each lost three out of their last five games. The Yankees’ pitching struggled greatly against Boston and is in dire need of improvement this week. In contrast, Kansas City ranks last in team home runs with just 44, putting their Top 10 pitching staff and 3.31 team ERA at risk.
Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
TV: YES, TBS
Betting Line: Yankees -1.5 (-200), O/U 8.5
Key Storyline: Will the Yankees’ faltering pitchers step up in Kansas City? New York hopes to move past their poor showing against the Red Sox last weekend, where their starters posted a dreadful 10.85 ERA, resulting in a series loss. Conversely, the Royals’ pitchers have maintained, or even improved upon, their 2024 performance.
Pitching Matchup: Max Fried (8-1, 1.78 ERA) vs. Noah Cameron (2-1, 0.85 ERA). Fried delivered six scoreless innings in his last outing and had previously performed well against Kansas City in April. The left-hander is well-positioned to continue this streak as he debuts at Kauffman Stadium on Tuesday.
Kansas City fields Cameron, a lefty and their No. 5 prospect, drafted from Central Arkansas in 2021. While his early MLB statistics are impressive, a deeper analysis shows he’s potentially overachieving as a rookie. Cameron, primarily a fly ball pitcher, has seen his strikeouts per nine innings drop from 11.3 in the minors to 5.4 in the majors.
In essence, Fried excels in inducing weak contact and ground balls, rarely surrendering home runs. Cameron’s ERA contrasts with a 3.64 FIP and 4.59 xFIP, and his 93 Stuff+ suggests below-average pitches overall. It’s a challenge to amass strikeouts if hitters have a clear view of the ball.
X-Factor: Paul Goldschmidt. The assumption wasn’t for the former MVP and future Hall-of-Famer to maintain a .340 batting average throughout the season, but his recent slump is notable. He’s hitting just .111 in June and .154 over his last ten games, which is troubling for the 37-year-old.
With the left-handed Cameron on the mound for the Royals, rookie slugger DH/1B Ben Rice is likely benched tonight. Goldschmidt has historically excelled against lefties, and given Cameron’s current form, he might be set for a strong performance if his vision at the plate is sharp.
Prediction: Max Fried’s only blemish against the Royals in their April victory was a solo home run by MJ Melendez. Otherwise, his 0.56 HR/9 this year is his lowest since 2020’s shortened season.
Considering Kansas City’s current standing at the bottom in both home runs and walk rate (BB%), this game is New York’s to lose. Since none of Noah Cameron’s five MLB starts have been against playoff teams from 2024, the Yankees are expected to win decisively.
For those engaging in New York sports betting, opting for New York’s run line or moneyline is wise. Instead of the over/under, consider placing a parlay bet on Aaron Judge hitting. With a .327 career average against the Royals, betting on him for a home run or multiple total bases could be beneficial. Yankees 6, Royals 1.
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- Source: SCCGManagement.com