The New York Yankees will face the Baltimore Orioles on Friday at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. After a dominant 7-0 victory in the series opener, the Yankees are looking for another win in Game 2. With playoff positioning on the line, New York is a slight favorite against an Orioles team that has been eliminated from playoff contention. Here, I break down this AL East matchup and make my Yankees vs Orioles prediction.
Our Yankees vs Orioles Pick
- Pick: Orioles Moneyline
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
- Date & Time: Friday, September 19, 2025, 7:05 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Will Warren (NYY) vs. Trevor Rogers (BAL)
- Stadium: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
- Broadcast: MASN, YES
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Will Warren (8-7, 4.44 ERA) takes the mound for the Yankees in this game. While his ERA is higher than desired, Warren has shown toughness and the ability to keep his team in games. He’ll look to build on his recent performances and contribute to the Yankees’ playoff push.
Opposing Warren is Trevor Rogers (8-2, 1.43 ERA) for the Orioles. Rogers has been exceptional this season, boasting a league-leading ERA and a remarkable 14 consecutive starts allowing two earned runs or fewer. His dominance on the mound makes him a tough opponent for the Yankees.
Key Players
- Aaron Judge (NYY): With 48 home runs and a .328 batting average, Judge continues to be a powerhouse in the Yankees’ lineup.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL): Leading the Orioles with 16 home runs and a .273 average, Henderson is a key offensive threat for Baltimore.
Recent Team Streaks
- Yankees: Winners of three straight games and six of their last eight, the Yankees are surging at the right time.
- Orioles: After a three-game winning streak, the Orioles fell 7-0 to the Yankees in the series opener on Thursday.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Gunnar Henderson | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Will Warren | Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
| Trevor Rogers | Over 6.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Yankees lead the season series 4-3 over the Orioles.
- New York has won the last three games between these teams.
- Baltimore has been outscored 20-2 in their last three meetings with the Yankees.
- New York is 22-24 against AL East opponents.
- Baltimore is 19-24 against division competition.
Yankees vs. Orioles Model Projection
- Score Projection: Orioles 5 – Yankees 3
- Win Probability: Orioles 60%, Yankees 40%
Final Thoughts
New York is playing much better baseball than Baltimore right now and the Yankees are still fighting for a postseason spot. But I think the Orioles are going to win this matchup from Camden Yards on Friday night. Baltimore’s starting pitching advantage with Trevor Rogers is going to be a huge factor and the Orioles should take advantage of that en route to an impressive home win.
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- Source: https://ats.io/mlb/new-york-yankees-vs-baltimore-orioles-prediction-9-19-2025/467455/