New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins Prediction – 9/29/2025

The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins will face off on Monday Night Football in Week 4. Both teams are still searching for their first wins of the 2025 season after 0-3 starts. Miami is a slight favorite at home going into this game, but it is hard to trust either of these teams to perform consistently given what we’ve seen from them so far. Before these AFC East rivals meet in Miami, continue reading to get my Jets vs Dolphins prediction.

Our Jets vs Dolphins Pick

• Pick: Over 45.5
• Confidence: ★★☆☆☆

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins
• Date & Time: Monday, September 29, 2025, 7:15 PM EDT
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
• Broadcast: ESPN

Jets vs Dolphins Odds

Key Storylines

• Jets’ Winless Start: The Jets are 0-3 and are facing a critical game to keep their playoff hopes alive here. A loss would drop them to 0-4, a deficit from which few teams recover. Tyrod Taylor played well in the place of Justin Fields last week and the quarterback situation of the Jets will be something to monitor going into this game.
• Miami’s Also-Winless Start: Miami is also 0-3 and facing the same perilous situation as the Jets going into this contest. The defense of the Dolphins has been horrible to start this season. They have given up 30 points or more in three straight games and they will try to fix things on that side of the ball here.
• Rest Advantage: The Dolphins have some extra time to recover and prepare for this game. Miami played on Thursday Night Football against the Bills last week and will have a few additional days to get ready for the Jets at home.

Quarterback Play

Jets: Jets quarterback Tyrod Taylor showed flashes of brilliance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. He led the Jets down the field for a late scoring drive to take the lead. But the Bucs were able to march down the field for a game-winning field goal against the Jets defense. Whether it is Fields or Taylor, the Jets will hope for similar production at quarterback this week.

Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa is a volatile quarterback for the Dolphins. He moved the ball through the air effectively against the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football in Week 3. But he threw a late interception that derailed an attempt to tie the game in the fourth quarter and his constant turnover woes are always a concern for Miami.

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Jets are 2-1 against the spread despite being 0-3 straight up.
• Miami is 1-2 against the spread during their 0-3 start.
• Both of these teams have gone over the total in two of their first three games.

Jets vs Dolphins Model Projection

Score Projection: Jets 23 – Dolphins 24

Win Probability: Jets 45%, Dolphins 55%

Final Thoughts

Both of these teams are hard to bet on with how poorly they have played to start this season. I think we are going to see a close game between the Jets and Dolphins. But instead of taking my chances with either side, I’ll take the over, as the struggling defense of the Dolphins should mean another high-scoring matchup in Miami.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.

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• Source: https://ats.io/nfl/new-york-jets-vs-miami-dolphins-prediction-9-29-2025/468143/