The Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs will open their 2025-26 NHL season against each other on Wednesday night. The Leafs won the Atlantic Division last season and will look to get this year off to a good start against a Canadiens team that also made the playoffs last year. Before the puck drops from Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, continue reading to get my Canadiens vs Maple Leafs prediction.
Our Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Pick
- Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs
- Date & Time: Wednesday, October 8, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Odds
| Moneyline | Puckline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| TOR -170 / MTL +145 | TOR –1.5 (+150) / MTL +1.5 (-180) | Over/Under 6.5 |
Key Storylines
Recent Form
The Canadiens ended last season at 40-31-11 and will aim to improve their consistency to finish in the top-three in the Atlantic this year. The Leafs are fresh off an Atlantic Division title last year. They have had some offseason roster tweaks, including claiming Cayden Primeau and Sammy Blais off waivers. The Leafs enter as the betting favorite in tonight’s season opener for both squads.
Recent matchups between these teams have heavily favored Toronto. Montreal is 1-8 in its last nine games against Toronto and 0-5 in its last five road games when facing Toronto. The Leafs would love to set the tone for this season by continuing their run of dominance against the Habs.
Goaltending
Anthony Stolarz is expected to start in goal for Toronto in their season opener. Stolarz just signed a four-year contract extension with the Leafs and will try to provide an immediate return on that investment for his team. Sam Montembeault started the majority of last season’s games for the Canadiens and will be expected to man the crease for the Habs in this contest as well.
Key Skaters
- Toronto: William Nylander remains a top playmaker. Auston Matthews is still one of the most dangerous scorers in the league. They will be very important to Toronto’s success right from the start of this year.
- Montreal: The Canadiens will rely on top forwards such as Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, while their blue line depth is thinner with Reinbacher out. Montreal’s power play effectiveness and ability to slow Toronto’s rushes will matter.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | Over 0.5 goals |
| William Nylander | Over 1.5 assists |
| Nick Suzuki | Over 1.0 points |
| Cole Caufield | Over 0.5 goals |
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Model Projection
Score Projection: Canadiens 2 – Maple Leafs 4
Win Probability: Montreal 33%, Toronto 67%
Final Thoughts
The Canadiens struggled on the road last season, going 17-19-5 away from their home rink during the 2024-25 season. I expect those struggles on the road to continue in this game, as the Leafs should pick up where they left off from a season ago. I recommend laying the puckline with the Maple Leafs here, as their more consistent attacking play across multiple lines should be the difference maker.
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- Source: https://ats.io/nhl/montreal-canadiens-vs-toronto-maple-leafs-prediction-10-8-2025/470140/