Mississippi State and Florida will go at it in the SEC on Saturday. Mississippi State has the better record going into this game, but Florida is favored heading into this conference matchup. Here, you will find my analysis of this game in the SEC and get my Mississippi State vs Florida prediction before kickoff in The Swamp.
Our Mississippi State vs Florida Pick
- Pick: Under 51.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Florida Gators
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 18, 2025, 4:15 p.m. ET
- Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
- Broadcast: SEC Network
Mississippi State vs Florida Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Florida −9.5 | Florida −380 / MSU +290 | 51.5 |
Key Storylines
- Florida’s pressure to perform: The Gators have underwhelmed this season. They lost four of their first six games and enter this contest off a 34-17 defeat at Texas A&M. A home win here would get Florida back to .500 in SEC play and would move them to within a game of the .500 mark overall on the year.
- Mississippi State’s SEC struggles: The Bulldogs are still seeking consistency in SEC play. They are 0-2 so far in conference play and 4-0 outside of the SEC. Mississippi State will try to get their first conference win again this week after losing to Tennessee and Texas A&M.
- Home-field advantage: Florida is 2-1 at home so far this season. They beat a ranked Texas Longhorns team in The Swamp earlier in the year and their only home loss came against a South Florida team that has played well throughout the season. Florida is favored at home again here but will need to go out there and earn it on their home field.
Quarterback Play
DJ Lagway has been inconsistent at quarterback for Florida. He has nine touchdown passes but he also has seven interceptions. Lagway has to avoid turning the ball over at home for Florida to avoid being upset by the Bulldogs this weekend.
Mississippi State is led by quarterback Blake Shapen. Shapen has completed just over two-thirds of his pass attempts for the season with nine touchdowns and four interceptions. Shapen has been better than Lagway at avoiding turnovers and if that continues here, he will give his team a chance to pull off an upset.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Florida is 2-4 against the spread this season.
- Mississippi State is 5-1 against the spread through its first six games.
- Both of these teams have had four of their six games stay under their totals.
- Florida is 35-19-2 all-time against Mississippi State.
Mississippi State vs Florida Model Projection
Score Projection: Florida 28 – Mississippi State 17
Win Probability: Florida 68%, Mississippi State 32%
Final Thoughts
Florida should be able to win this game at home to get to 2-2 in SEC play. But I would prefer to take the under than to take Florida to cover the spread in this game. Both of these defenses should make life difficult for the quarterbacks in this matchup and Florida will win a defensive battle in Gainesville.
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