The Philadelphia Phillies will face the Minnesota Twins in the opening game of their final regular-season series on Friday night. The Phillies have locked up a division title and have managed to avoid the Wild Card round. They will try to build momentum toward the postseason with a win here. Before the Twins and Phillies take the field on Friday, continue reading to get my Twins vs Phillies prediction for tonight.
Our Twins vs Phillies Pick
- Pick: Over 8.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies
- Date & Time: Friday, September 26, 2025, 6:45 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Joe Ryan (Twins) vs Aaron Nola (Phillies)
- Stadium: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
- Broadcast: NBCS-PH and MNNT
Key Storylines
The Phillies enter this final homestand riding momentum from two straight wins, including a 1–0 shutout win over the Miami Marlins last night. They enter with a 94–65 record and are locked in a tight battle with Milwaukee for the top seed in the National League. Minnesota is 69–90 and already eliminated from postseason contention, making this a game that is all about pride for the Twins.
Pitching matchup
The Twins will send Joe Ryan to the mound in his career-high 30th start of 2025. He’s had a respectable season with a 13-9 record and a 3.47 ERA. The Phillies will counter with Aaron Nola, who has struggled mightily this season. He enters this start with a 4–10 record and a 6.46 ERA. Nola’s recent start against Arizona was rough. He allowed four runs over 5.1 innings. Ryan is the better pitcher going into this game but the Phillies have the better lineup.
Recent team streaks
Philadelphia has won two straight games and they enter this series opener two games back of Milwaukee for the top spot in the National League. Minnesota has won three of their last four games, but they have lacked consistency throughout the 2025 season.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | Home runs | Over 0.5 |
| Aaron Nola | Strikeouts | Under 5.5 |
| Joe Ryan | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Total bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first meeting of the season between the Twins and Phillies.
- Minnesota is 31-47 on the road for the year.
- Philadelphia is 53-25 at home in 2025.
- The Twins are 19-26 in interleague play so far this season.
- Philadelphia is 29-16 against American League opponents on the year.
Twins vs Phillies Model Projection
Score Projection: Phillies 5 – Twins 4
Win Probability: Phillies 61%, Twins 39%
Final Thoughts
I think we are going to see a high-scoring game between the Phillies and Twins on Friday night. Aaron Nola’s struggles have been well-documented so far this year and I expect the Twins to get to him early in this game. But the Phillies have a ton of firepower of their own and they should be able to provide plenty of scoring themselves. My best bet for this interleague matchup is for the game to go over the total, as we should see both sides do their share of scoring in this interleague contest.
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- Source: https://ats.io/mlb/minnesota-twins-vs-philadelphia-phillies-prediction-9-26-2025/468588/