The Minnesota Timberwolves will face the New Orleans Pelicans on Thursday night at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. Minnesota comes in riding the momentum of a three-game winning streak, while New Orleans remains mired in a tough season and is trying to snap a four-game losing streak. Can the Pelicans pull off an upset to get back into the win column? Find out what I think below, as I make my Timberwolves vs Pelicans prediction.
Our Timberwolves vs Pelicans Pick
- Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves -11.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Minnesota Timberwolves @ New Orleans Pelicans
- Date & Time: Thursday, December 4, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
- Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Timberwolves vs Pelicans Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total (O/U) |
|---|---|---|
| MIN -11.5 | MIN -575 / NOP +425 | 233.5 |
Key Storylines
- Minnesota riding high: The Timberwolves are 13-8 on the season, having picked up wins in three consecutive games. They are coming off a 149–142 overtime win over New Orleans on Tuesday and the Wolves will hope for a more straightforward win against the Pelicans in the second game of their two-game mini-series.
- New Orleans still struggling: The Pelicans sit at 3-19 and continue to battle injuries and roster instability. Star forward Zion Williamson has been ruled out due to a right adductor strain, leaving the offense worse than usual. Even when healthy, consistency has been scarce for New Orleans this season. They have dropped four straight games going into Thursday night.
- Mismatch on paper and in practice: The Pelicans have the second-worst defensive rating in the NBA this season. New Orleans is also in the bottom 5 in the league in offensive rating. Minnesota’s depth should make them tough for the Pelicans to beat, with the only question being whether or not the Timberwolves can win by enough to cover the spread.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This is the second game between the Pelicans and Timberwolves this season. Minnesota won the first meeting in overtime on December 2.
- Minnesota is 8-13 against the spread so far this season.
- New Orleans is 12-9-1 against the spread entering this contest.
- The Pelicans have gone over the total 13 times in 22 games.
- The Timberwolves have gone 11-10 to the over on the year so far.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop to Watch |
|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | Over 29.5 Points |
| Trey Murphy III | Over 20.5 Points |
Timberwolves vs Pelicans Model Projection
Score Projection: Minnesota 125 – New Orleans 108
Win Probability: Minnesota 82%, New Orleans 18%
Final Thoughts
These teams played a very tight game a couple of nights ago. But I’m not expecting that to be the case again in this contest. I’m going to lay the points with the Timberwolves, as they should take advantage of the dismal defense of New Orleans for the second game in a row, while playing slightly better on the defensive end of the floor themselves.
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- Source: https://ats.io/nba/minnesota-timberwolves-vs-new-orleans-pelicans-prediction-12-4-2025/478012/