Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cleveland Guardians Preview – May 13, 2025
The Cleveland Guardians host the Milwaukee Brewers on May 13, 2025, at Progressive Field in what promises to be a key matchup for both clubs. Cleveland enters the game with a 24-17 record and is enjoying a promising campaign, while Milwaukee is striving to break above .500 with a current record of 20-22. The Guardians edged out the Brewers in their previous meeting, giving them momentum and a chance to take control of this interleague series.
Starting Pitchers
Cleveland will entrust Logan Allen with the start. The lefty holds a 1-2 record with a 4.33 ERA—numbers that seem respectable on the surface. However, his xFIP of 5.36 signals potential underlying issues. Allen is expected to go roughly 5.2 innings while surrendering around 2.9 earned runs, along with 5.6 hits and 1.9 walks. His ability to limit base runners will be critical, especially against a Brewers team that leads the majors in stolen bases, bringing significant speed to the basepaths despite their inconsistency at the plate.
On the mound for Milwaukee is Quinn Priester. The right-hander is also 1-1 this season, posting a 5.08 ERA. Projections suggest Priester will pitch about 5.1 innings, giving up approximately 2.8 earned runs and 5.5 hits. With both pitchers showing signs of vulnerability, this could turn into a game where bullpen depth becomes the deciding factor.
Team Profiles
Cleveland’s offense sits middle-of-the-pack in key metrics such as runs and home runs, but they gain a significant edge with a bullpen ranked 8th in the league. This strength could prove decisive late in a game that’s projected to be fairly high scoring, with the total line set at 9.0 runs.
The Guardians are slight favorites with a -125 moneyline, while the Brewers are priced at +105, indicating a competitive contest. If Cleveland can leverage its pitching depth and home-field advantage, they could extend their series lead.
Key Factors for Milwaukee
– Quinn Priester is coming off a solid outing, allowing just one earned run, raising hopes he can carry that form into today’s start.
– Sal Frelick faces a tough challenge against Cleveland’s elite outfield defense, ranked 3rd today — a concern for a hitter prone to fly balls.
– As a team, the Brewers are currently last in MLB in terms of Barrel% (6%), indicating a lack of consistent power in their batting approach.
Key Factors for Cleveland
– Logan Allen, an extreme flyball pitcher (36% flyball rate per THE BAT), may benefit from Progressive Field’s status as the 21st-ranked HR venue, potentially minimizing long-ball damage.
– Nolan Jones is slotted 8th in the batting order, a downgrade from his usual top-half position (68% of games). This could reduce his opportunities at the plate but may offer value if betting markets haven’t adjusted for this change.
– Jose Ramirez excels at pulling flyballs (41.4%, 99th percentile) and will be batting toward one of the shortest right-field fences in baseball — the 6th-shallowest — making him a strong candidate for extra-base hits.
Trends to Watch
– The Guardians have gone under their First Five Innings (F5) team total in 11 of their last 16 games, yielding +5.55 units and a 28% ROI.
– The Brewers have seen the full-game total go under in 18 of their last 31 contests, resulting in +7.05 units and a 21% ROI.
– Cleveland’s Steven Kwan has been in reliable form, hitting the Over on hits in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.10 units / 21% ROI).
Prediction
Projected Final Score: Brewers 4.87, Guardians 4.74
While Cleveland holds the advantage on paper with a stronger bullpen and slight edge in lineup balance, Milwaukee’s speed on the bases and the recent form of Quinn Priester could tip the scales. Expect a tightly contested matchup with the potential for late-game drama.
Game Info
– Date: May 13, 2025
– Venue: Progressive Field
– Starting Pitchers:
– Brewers: Quinn Priester
– Guardians: Logan Allen
Be sure to monitor lineup confirmations and any late updates before placing your bets. For more insights and analysis, check out our free MLB picks.
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- Source: SCCGManagement.com